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Evidence of vulnerability to decision bias in expert field scientists

2020; Wiley; Volume: 34; Issue: 5 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1002/acp.3677

1099-0720

Cristina G. Wilson, Thomas F. Shipley, Alexandra Davatzes,

Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics

Summary Previous research demonstrates that domain experts, like ordinary participant populations, are vulnerable to decision bias. Here, we examine susceptibility to bias amongst expert field scientists. Field scientists operate in less predictable environments than other experts, and feedback on the consequences of their decisions is often unclear or delayed. Thus, field scientists are a population where the findings of scientific research may be particularly vulnerable to bias. In this study, susceptibility to optimism, hindsight, and framing bias was evaluated in a group of expert field geologists using descriptive decision scenarios. Experts showed susceptibility to all three biases, and susceptibility was not influenced by years of science practice. We found no evidence that participants' vulnerability to one bias was related to their vulnerability to another bias. Our findings are broadly consistent with previous research on expertise and decision bias, demonstrating that no expert, regardless their domain experience, is immune to bias.