Produção Nacional
BRAZIL IS PROJECTED TO BE THE NEXT GLOBAL COVID-19 PANDEMIC EPICENTER
2020; Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory; Linguagem: Inglês
10.1101/2020.04.28.20083675
AutoresPedro de Lemos Menezes, David M. Garner, Vítor Engrácia Valenti,
Tópico(s)COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
ResumoABSTRACT Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a disease triggered by SARS-CoV-2 infection, which is related in the most recent pandemic situation, significantly affecting health and economic systems. In this study we assessed the death rate associated to COVID-19 in Brazil and the United States of America (USA) to estimate the probability of Brazil becoming the next pandemic epicenter. We equated data between Brazil and USA obtained through the Worldometer website ( www.worldometer.info ). Epidemic curves from Brazil and USA were associated and regression analysis was undertaken to predict the Brazilian death rate regarding COVID-19 in June. In view of data from April 9 th 2020, death rates in Brazil follow a similar exponential increase to USA (r=0.999; p<0.001), estimating 64,310 deaths by June 9 th 2020. In brief, our results demonstrated that Brazil follows an analogous progression of COVID-19 deaths cases when compared to USA, signifying that Brazil could be the next global epicenter of COVID-19. We highlight public strategies to decrease the COVID-19 outbreak.
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