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SMSTs on thin ice: motivations behind migration from a Hungarian micro‐region

2020; Elsevier BV; Volume: 12; Issue: 5 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1111/rsp3.12287

1757-7802

Mariann Szabó, Zsuzsanna Banász,

Hungarian Social, Economic and Educational Studies

The aim of our study is to highlight what kind of factors influence the attachment of inhabitants to the towns in the test area "Murafölde", a Hungarian micro-region. We assume, that the level of attachment is a function of the inhabitants' satisfaction with employment opportunities. In 2017, a total of 1,900 questionnaires have been collected in the test area. This was the first survey in the region aiming at identifying the inhabitants' motivation for mobility. Results indicate that satisfaction with employment opportunities significantly influence the attachment to the towns, while there are other factors which are even stronger. El objetivo de nuestro estudio es destacar el tipo de factores que influyen en el apego de los habitantes a las ciudades en el área de estudio de "Murafölde", una micro-región de Hungría. Se asumió que el nivel de apego depende de la satisfacción de los habitantes con las oportunidades de empleo. En 2017 se recolectaron un total de 1.900 cuestionarios en la zona de estudio. Esta fue la primera encuesta en la región dirigida a identificar la motivación de los habitantes respecto a la movilidad. Los resultados indican que la satisfacción con las oportunidades de empleo influye significativamente en el apego a las ciudades, a pesar de que hay otros factores que son aún más influyentes. 本稿の目的は、ハンガリーのミクロ地域でテスト地域のMuraföldeの町に対する住民の愛着には、どのような要因が影響しているかを明らかにすることである。愛着の度合いは、雇用機会に対する住民の満足度と相関していると仮定する。2017年に、テスト地域で、合計1,900件の質問票が収集された。これは、住民の移動に対する意欲を把握することを目的とした、この地域で初めての調査であった。結果から、雇用機会への満足が町への愛着に有意に影響することが示されたが、他にもより影響力の強い要因も認められた。 Nowadays we face the challenge of how economic concentration, large cities attract an increasing number of residents in tune with globalization, due to the penetration of global supply chains forming new types of economic relations in regional systems. Regions—as social, cultural, political and economic interaction systems (Agnew, 2000, 2001; Haukkala, 1999 as cited in Palekiene, Simanaviciene, & Bruneckiene, 2015)—often represent an inner core-periphery system, where the importance of cities, larger towns is high, the neighbourhood often depends on the economic viability and growth of core areas (urban–rural linkages). In this setting, small and medium-sized towns (SMSTs) must design programmes which improve population retention. Such programmes often aim at improving the quality of life of inhabitants. To do so is quite a challenge since the maintenance of a diversified service portfolio in terms of various possibilities (working, housing, learning, training, communication, consumption, leisure and recreational alternatives) requires sufficient threshold levels. The question of quality of life (QOL) has become an important factor in forming people's attitudes towards communities, towns either from a mobility or tourism perspective (Michalkó, 2010). It is important to note that migration is undertaken strategically at different stages of the life cycle (as proven by Ley and Kobayashi (2005)) according to economic reasons (early or mid- career), family matters (education opportunities) and retirement, when quality of life may become a renewed priority. Hungary, one of the transit economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) represents characteristics of a dual economy: following the regime's change to a capitalist economy the main driver of economic development has become foreign direct investment. (FDI) created a higher than European average level of inequality, which negatively influenced the harmonization of the country's QOL levels. FDI had an enormous impact on urbanization, strengthening the economic power of various territories and resulting in new core-periphery relationships. New types of inequality have emerged, which were reflected in the changed concentration of population, differences in income, and access to various services in the country of less than 10 million inhabitants. Hungary has 20 NUTS 3 regions in total, where the first quartile (the capital Budapest, counties Pest, Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén, Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg and Hajdú-Bihar) concentrates 49% of the total population, and the last quartile (counties Heves, Zala, Vas, Tolna and Nógrád) 13%. The urbanization rate varies among counties as well: for each town there are eight villages on the average, while in Zala county (our test area) there are almost 25 villages for each town. The study was conducted in "Murafölde" ("Land of Mura river"), a micro-region near the Slovenian border, situated along the Mura river. A government decree (No. 1362/2016 (VII. 13.)) has created the Mura National Programme regional development initiative to determine the main development tasks of the micro-region and the funds required to fulfil those tasks. The regional development initiative aims at strengthening the valorization of the human and natural capital of the region where the aging of the society, the unfavourable income conditions of inhabitants living in small villages located close to each other and the migration of young generations cause significant stress on the long-term viability of the region. Our research has two major novelties in assessing QOL in towns. First, as we demonstrate in the scientific literature review, most common indices measuring QOL examine rather larger towns, and we only found a few which also analysed SMSTs. Second, it is the first survey in the region which aims to identify the motivation of the inhabitants to migrate. Better understanding of how satisfied the inhabitants are with the conditions in their towns would provide valuable insights which decision makers could then take into account in designing regional development policies, as there is strong connection between attachment to the towns and the ambition to remain (Tóth-Kaszás, 2018). The attitude of inhabintants towards their town influences its attractiveness, the migration balance (difference between the number of persons who entered the territory and the number of persons who left) and even the number of visitors and the higher level of satisfaction results in fewer inhabitants moving away from the town (Piskóti, Nagy, Molnár, & Marien, 2012). The aim of our study is to highlight what kind of factors influence the attachement of inhabitants to the towns in the test area. Our hypothesis is that the level of attachement is the function of the inhabitants' satisfaction with job opportunities. The study is structured as follows: Section 2 summarizes the literature review on the quality of life, and factors taken into account for its measurement, − the composite index, to be precise; Section 3 illustrates - on a map of the world and of Europe - the quality of life in Hungary, and some potential determinants thereof on a LAU-1 level country map; Section 4 introduces our primary data source and the research model; Section 5 presents the results of the analyses; and finally, in Section 6 statements are summarized and conclusions are demonstrated. Quality of life measurements in the beginning exclusively used objective indicators for countries. The Human Development Index (HDI) was created to emphasize that people and their capabilities, not economic growth alone, should be the ultimate criteria for assessing the development of a country, (UNDP, 2019) relying on three dimensions: long and healthy life (life expectancy at birth), knowledge (expected years and mean years of schooling) and a decent standard of living (GNI per capita PPP $). Later, HDI had been adjusted in order to provide, for instance, more appropriate status on well-being, integrating the problem of income considerations. Ackerman, Kiron, Goodwin, Harris, and Gallagher (1997), admit that HDI has been the subject of several critical reviews including Goulet (1992) who proposes the use of multiple indicators which are essential to capture social, political, cultural and ecological aspects of development. The "Green National Product" accounting scheme, the "Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare" by Herman Daly and John Cobb emphasize that the measure of welfare is not the current flow of services to humanity from various channels, (or more precisely the available supply of goods and services) but the personal consumption expenditure – "an additional thousand dollars in income adds more to the welfare of a poor family then it does to a rich family" (Daly & Cobb, 1994, p. 445). In order to comprehend the effect of various welfare systems and policies more and more organizations had started to develop surveys and indicator systems capable of assessing the subjective well-being/quality of life of inhabitants in different countries. Kopp and Martos (2011) suggested a "national well-being index." There are surveys that assess which components are evaluated (subjectively) by people to be vital for their well-being. These include, inter alia, the Global Well-being Index (GWI) 1 of the global analytics and advice company Gallup since 2013 (Standish & Witters, 2014), the World Happiness Report (WHR) 2 since 2012 (Helliwell, Layard, & Sachs, 2018). It is important to note that not all detailed reports are publicly accessible for free or else they are a challenge to find. For instance, the "Where to be Born Index" of The Economist Intelligence Unit assesses countries on how they provide the best opportunities for a healthy, safe and prosperous life in the years ahead (The Economist, 2012). The Happy Planet Index (HPI) 3 of the New Economics Foundation (NEF) has been published since 2006 and as their official website declares: it combines four elements to show how efficiently residents of different countries use environmental resources to lead long, happy lives (happyplanetindex.org). To measure how satisfied the residents of each country say they feel with life overall, on a scale from zero to ten, they use the data collected as part of the Gallup World Poll (happyplanetindex.org). Due to advances in ICT, there are websites that provide information about the quality of life of various countries with detailed descriptions. The European Quality of Life Survey (EQLS) 4 of Eurofound (2017) is available online and it lists all answers per question in country aggregates. 5 There are websites, such as Numbeo 6 which provide information worldwide, not only on countries but on towns, too. The various components of the site are public and they provide topical data permanently. The so-called "Quality of Life Index", an estimation of the overall quality of life, is calculated on various territorial scales (towns, countries), by using an empirical formula which takes into account the purchasing power index (where higher is better), the pollution index (lower is better), the housing price to income ratio (lower is better), the cost of living index (lower is better), the safety index (higher is better), the health care index (higher is better), the commute time index (lower is better) and the climate index (the higher is better), thus, the higher the index the better is performance. Numbeo accepts data from various sources, but all are filtered; they collect data from publicly available websites of supermarkets, taxi service providers and news media as well. For instance, concerning price levels 7 475,103 users have uploaded the 5,682,252 price level data of 9,159 towns, however, the operators apply multiple data filtering methods in order to provide proper data. We could observe that in order to eliminate the dominance of GDP in assessing welfare from a market performance point of view several initiatives have been launched to incorporate other dimensions of determinants that differentiate human wealth from well-being. These dimensions seem quite common: safety, health, environmental conditions, culture, infrastructure, etc. By integrating various spatial aspects into the analysis, we may gain a more precise picture of how space matters. These investigations provide information on how the development of different factors influence the territorial development of various places. Now it is quite evident, that the standard of living and the variety of services in relation to societal needs varies among towns. The emergence of agglomeration economies in urban areas provide a clear advantage over non-metropolitan areas' capabilities which question their future (Kourtit, Nijkamp, & Partridge, 2013). Underlining the importance of regional economies, in which urban and rural linkages would be enhanced, Smetana, Tamásy, Mathys, and Heinz (2015) propose the concept of regional sustainability assessment methodology (RSAM). This covers natural, social and economic capital transfer accounting through extended input–output tables and cyclicity analyses, incorporating the time dimension into the investigation of quality of life since the different resources must be maintained. In line with that, Rantamäki and Kattilakoski (2019) stress the importance of sustaining critical resources. In their research, they point out, that rural areas have been most affected by the developments threatening the survival of the welfare state as well as by conflicting efforts to save it—including local welfare innovations, resulting from a combination of external causes and local resources including the sense of community and a diverse enough community structure. Perez-Mayo (2019) investigates how space would constrain the set of opportunities that people possess. People, even in identical personal circumstances (except their home region) and the same set of opportunities can produce very different outcomes depending on the region—thus the role of networks in which people could participate influence the level of their personal well-being and the income of the region they live and consume in. There is a number of QOL research which assess separate or individual towns/cities, such as the Malaysian Urban Indicators Network (Marzukhi, Omar, Leh, Hamir, & Bargchi, 2011) or the Winnipeg Quality of Life Indicators (Hardi & Pintér, 2007) which aim to assess to what extent that people value QOL in the city; how they appreciate the size and pace of the city and its amenities; to what extent they are attached to their neighbourhoods; and whether they feel that Winnipeg is a great place to raise a family. We see that the indexes which measure QOL worldwide examine rather larger towns and cities, while there is a need for common understanding of the challenges of smaller towns and villages. The decreasing number of inhabitants in smaller towns is a worldwide phenomenon (Peters, 2019), both in (Hamdouch et al., 2017; Smith, 2017) or outside of Europe (Wirtha, Elisb, Müllerad, & Yamamotoc, 2016). There is a growing number of scientific works which provide in-depth analysis especially of small towns concerning their demographic tendencies, QOL, societal attitude and social capital, for instance, in Canada (Everitt & Gill, 1993) and the comparison between QOL of French and Polish small towns (Kwiatek-Sołtys & Mainet, 2014). Figure 1(a) shows the quality of life at Numbeo's current world map. Figure 1(b) focuses on Europe and on the country of the test area. The Numbeo Quality of Life Index ranked Hungary 41st out of 71 countries in the world and 28th out of 34 countries in Europe on 11 October 2019. Current world map of the Quality of Life Index by Numbeo, 10 October 2019 Note: In Figure 1(b) the "X" means Hungary, the country which will be examined Factors such as unemployment and income may influence the quality of life perceived by residents. If people who are dissatisfied with their quality of life expect a higher quality of life in another town, this may lead to their moving away from the original town. Figure 2 shows these three indicators (unemployment, income, mobility) of Hungary at the LAU1 level for the latest available data (the year 2017). Figure 2(a) illustrates the relatively high number of registered unemployed per 100 working-age population in "Murafölde." Figure 2(b) indicates the relatively low total net income per taxpayer in "Murafölde." These two facts can cause more people to leave this area than those who move there (see Figure 2(c)). Selected indicators of Hungary at LAU1 level, 2017 Note: The red circle indicates Murafölde under investigation The QOL assessments often combine qualitative and quantitative measures. The survey in "Murafölde" provides an opportunity to assess the reasons which lay behind the behaviour reflected by hard, output-type of indicators. Understanding the reasons behind the mobility of inhabitants, especially of younger generations is the only way for decision-makers to stop or slow the tendencies. Thus, a microanalysis is important to understand the phenomena. Moreover, information gained from the hard statistics reflect tendencies of the past and surveys provide opportunities for measuring current trends, which could be a valuable base for predictions, since not only stated preferences, but underlying societal motivations may be analysed. One thousand nine hundred standardized questionnaires have been collected in the test area: Nagykanizsa regional centre and sample towns of "Murafölde." The computer-assisted data collection (CAPI), carried out by trained pollsters, ended in September 2017. Due to the application of CAPI, the data collection has done with tracking thus ensuring checkable representability of the sample. The research model of Figure 3 lists the survey questions which were taken into account in the study. We used these questions because they are a part of a standardized questionnaire, and are aimed at measuring the satisfaction of the local residents with their town and (micro)region. Potential explanatory variables are in column (a), and the response variables (ones to be explained) are in column (b). In our research, we aimed to evaluate to what extent the seven "(b)" response variables are dependent on the thirty-two explanatory ones. Research model Note: Each question could be answered on a scale of 1 to 4, where 1: not at all, 4: completely. Source: own compilation. Because of all variables can measured on an ordinal scale, the strength of their relationship can be determined by rank correlation coefficients. We applied Kendall's tau b (hereinafter τ) instead of Spearman's Rho, because there can be a lot of tied values. (There may be a lot of ties between the questions on the 1–4 scale.) This τ produces a statistic that ranges from −1 to 1. The sign of the number indicates the positive or negative nature of the relationship. Negative (positive) τ means that as the rank of one variable increases, the rank of another variable has a tendency to decrease (also increase). The absolute value of τ shows the strength of the rank correlation. (Hinton, McMurray, & Brownlow, 2014). Table 1 summarizes some descriptive statistics in relation to variables to be explained: the non-response rates, the mean, mode and relative standard deviation by questions at three levels: Nagykanizsa regional centre and "Murafölde" together (∑), the responses of Nagykanizsa (I) and of the other 36 towns of "Murafölde" (II). The willingness to answer was lower in Nagykanizsa (I.) than in the other towns (II.) for all except one question (B3. To what extent are you attached to the Pannonian region?). To what extent are you attached to the To what extent do you agree with the following statements? To what extent do you agree with the following statements? Those respondents, who have indicated they least or less agree that they would live in their current town on the long run (who answered B1 with 1 or 2: 12.9% of the 1,900 samples, 249 persons), have been asked what their motivation is, and/or what other possible destination they could imagine. Figure 4 indicates their answers. The main reason (38%) for changing their current occupation is the hope of better job opportunities (see Figure 4(a)). Of these 249 persons, 9% have Bachelors or Masters Degrees (meaning that 15% of respondents with higher education qualification would leave). The majority of respondents would move to the capital (23% of people who want to move), or abroad (22%) (see Figure 4(b)). Source: own compilation Table 2 summarizes some descriptive statistics in relation to the potential explanatory variables. Focusing on cells with a green background (i.e., where the mean and relative standard deviation is greater) show that the average opinion of local residents of towns except of the capital (II.) are more satisfied with their town, and their relative standard deviations are lower, namely, their opinion are more in line with the average. Table 3 contains all results of relationship analyses, namely, τ rank correlation coefficients between variables. It shows that most of the answers to the questions are significantly related. All results (τ) are less than 0.5, indicating only moderately strong relationships at most. I. Nagykanizsa, the capital of "Murafölde" region II. other towns of "Murafölde" region It is interesting to observe how well someone feels (B4) Quality of life is important to all of us. The study presented the types of indicators that measure the quality of life. The Numbeo Quality of Life Index ranked Hungary 41st out of 71 countries in the world and 28th out of 34 countries in Europe on 11 October 2019. Figure 2 showed that the unemployment and income indicators of Murafölde do not improve the quality of life and these may also lead to the displacement of the area. From the viewpoint of the future of the micro-region the emigration of youth and qualified persons is a real loss. The main reasons are the lack of job opportunities and low wages (see Figure 4), while the attachment of people to their towns and to the micro-region is relatively strong (see the high values of means and modes in Table 1.) The displacement of local residents can cause a snowball effect in the long run since the diminishing market potential will effect the service portfolio of current providers (education, healthcare, consumption), while the growing aging population will increase the vulnerability of the society. The aim of the research was, on the one hand, to assess the quality of life perceived by the inhabitants of "Murafölde" and, on the other, to determine what influences them the most (satisfaction with different factors). The relationship analyses have proven that people feel more comfortable in their town if they are more satisfied with their work and think that the values of the local community are similar to theirs. This result may highlight the strength of small communities, where traditions, direct help networks are more common than in larger cities. Concerning the regional centre, Nagykanizsa, those, who are more satisfied with their work, plan their life in the town, and also want their children to live and work here. Otherwise, it is important to note, that in the case of other towns of Murafölde region the extent people feel more comfortable in their town does not correlate with how satisfied they are with their work, rather with how they feel the local community is similar to themselves and how satisfied they are with the natural environment: clean air, water, etc., with the size and condition of the green surfaces, and with affordable housing options. These results underline the importance of rural areas from a housing point of view, but in order to strengthen their livability good connections to economically strong centres must be developed. In other words, regional centres must strengthen their "growth pole" role (concept of Francois Perroux) in order to support the growth of welfare in their surroundings. We have analysed the portfolio of factors which meet the expectation of the inhabitants of Murafölde region. Generally the respondents are rather satisfied with the conditions of both their personal circumstances and town-related measures, like: work of the public administration (3.27), safety in town/surroundings (3.46/3.43), healthcare services (3.21), sports facilities, sport events (3.17), leisure, recreational possibilities (3.23), shopping facilities (3.25), public places (3.21) and with public services (e.g., education, public buildings, social services) in general (3.19). Nevertheless, the respondents agree to a lesser degree that their mayor and assembly members effectively represent the interest of the town and its residents (2.97) and the Member of Parliament of the town effectively represent the interest of the town and its residents (2.83). Also, they are less satisfied with the communication, transport conditions (2.54), working possibilities (2.64), state of the roads and buildings in their neighbourhoods (2.73), interurban and long-distance public transport (2.61/2.77). Altogether it seems that conditions which rather less meet the expectation of residents reflects a periphery position of the micro-region: consequently they are less satisfied with the performance and effectiveness of the local political power and wish to be more integrated in the Hungarian urban network. The Mura National Plan would be a beneficial starting point, but without the creation of high-value added jobs the negative migration balance tendencies will continue, which may result in the disappearance of the smallest towns in the region. But, as the work of Ley and Kobayashi (2005) has proven, certain places could benefit from various aspects: they may be good locations for early or mid career inhabitants, or families or retired people. Thus we may state the results indicate that currently the region is more favourable from public services point of view than for work possibilities. The challenge is that, younger inhabitants who leave the region do not return, despite their strong attachment. If the regional centre, Nagykanizsa would strengthen its role in the Hungarian economy, it would be the heart of the renewal of the micro-region. To enhance this type of "growth pole" role, the efforts of the central and local government, the local university (University of Pannonia), important economic players and NGOs are required.