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Bidirectional contact tracing dramatically improves COVID-19 control

2020; Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1101/2020.05.06.20093369

William J. Bradshaw, Ethan C. Alley, Jonathan H. Huggins, Alun L. Lloyd, Kevin M. Esvelt,

Immune responses and vaccinations

Abstract Contact tracing is critical to controlling COVID-19, but most protocols only “forward-trace” to notify people who were recently exposed. Using a stochastic branching-process model, we show that “bidirectional” tracing to identify infector individuals and their other infectees robustly improves outbreak control, reducing the effective reproduction number ( R eff ) by at least ∼0.3 while dramatically increasing resilience to low case ascertainment and test sensitivity. Adding smartphone-based exposure notification can further reduce R eff by 0.25, but only if nearly all smartphones can detect exposure events. Our results suggest that with or without digital approaches, implementing bidirectional tracing will enable health agencies to control COVID-19 more effectively without requiring high-cost interventions.