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Predicting the distribution of Syagrus coronata palm: Challenges for the conservation of an important resource in northeastern Brazil

2020; Elsevier BV; Volume: 269; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.flora.2020.151607

1618-0585

Victor Vinícius Ferreira de Lima, Aldicìr Scariot, Anderson Cássio Sevilha,

Species Distribution and Climate Change

The palm Syagrus coronata plays an important ecological role in the caatinga ecosystems and is a source of income and livelihood for rural communities in semiarid northeastern Brazil. Despite its ecological and socioeconomic importance, little is known about the environmental factors determining its geographic distribution. The main goals of this study were to investigate the influence of climatic and environmental factors on the geographic distribution of S. coronata and to evaluate the conservation status within its potential distribution area. We modeled the fundamental niche of S. coronata using the MaxEnt algorithm and assessed the degree of vulnerability of environmental suitability areas quantifying the representativeness of protected areas and the different land use and land cover classes. Results predicted that the distribution of S. coronata is determined mainly by seasonality of precipitation and precipitation of the coldest quarter of the year. The areas of suitability, despite their large geographical extent, showed a high degree of environmental vulnerability, mainly due to the high conversion rate of native vegetation areas into agriculture and livestock and the low representation of protected areas. The results indicate a low effectiveness of the system of conservation units to protect the species, with anthropogenic disturbances threatening the quality of habitats and the persistence of S. coronata populations. Results can be used to support actions for the conservation and management of S. coronata, as well as decision making on the design of protected areas.