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Understanding and monitoring the evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic from medical emergency calls: the example of the Paris area

2020; Elsevier BV; Volume: 358; Issue: 7 Linguagem: Inglês

10.5802/crmath.99

1778-3569

Stéphane Gaubert, Marianne Akian, Xavier Allamigeon, Marin Boyet, Baptiste Colin, Théotime Grohens, Laurent Massoulié, David Parsons, Frédéric Adnet, Érick Chanzy, Laurent Goix, Frédéric Lapostolle, Éric Lecarpentier, Christophe Leroy, Thomas Loeb, Jean-Sébastien Marx, C. Télion, Laurent Tréluyer, Pierre Carli,

Influenza Virus Research Studies

We portray the evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic during the crisis of March–April 2020 in the Paris area, by analyzing the medical emergency calls received by the EMS of the four central departments of this area (Centre 15 of SAMU 75, 92, 93 and 94). Our study reveals strong dissimilarities between these departments. We show that the logarithm of each epidemic observable can be approximated by a piecewise linear function of time. This allows us to distinguish the different phases of the epidemic, and to identify the delay between sanitary measures and their influence on the load of EMS. This also leads to an algorithm, allowing one to detect epidemic resurgences. We rely on a transport PDE epidemiological model, and we use methods from Perron–Frobenius theory and tropical geometry.