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Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto

2020; Nature Portfolio; Volume: 582; Issue: 7813 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1038/d41586-020-01812-9

1476-4687

Andrea Saltelli, Gabriele Bammer, Isabelle Bruno, Érica Charters, Monica Di Fiore, Emmanuel Didier, Wendy Nelson Espeland, John E. Kay, Samuele Lo Piano, Deborah G. Mayo, Roger A. Pielke, Tommaso Portaluri, Theodore M. Porter, Arnald Puy, Ismael Ràfols, Jerome R. Ravetz, Erik S. Reinert, Daniel Sarewitz, Philip B. Stark, Andy Stirling, J.P. van der Sluijs, Paolo Vineis,

COVID-19 epidemiological studies

The COVID-19 pandemic illustrates perfectly how the operation of science changes when questions of urgency, stakes, values and uncertainty collide -in the 'post-normal' regime.Well before the coronavirus pandemic, statisticians were debating how to prevent malpractice such as p-hacking, particularly when it could influence policy 1 .Now, computer modelling is in the limelight, with politicians presenting their policies as dictated by 'science' 2 .Yet there is no substantial aspect of this pandemic for which any researcher can currently provide precise, reliable numbers.Known unknowns include the prevalence and fatality and reproduction rates of the virus in Pandemic politics highlight how predictions need to be transparent and humble to invite insight, not blame.