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Six hundred years of South American tree rings reveal an increase in severe hydroclimatic events since mid-20th century

2020; National Academy of Sciences; Volume: 117; Issue: 29 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1073/pnas.2002411117

1091-6490

Mariano S. Morales, Edward R. Cook, Jonathan Barichivich, Duncan A. Christie, Ricardo Villalba, Carlos LeQuesne, Ana M. Srur, M. Eugenia Ferrero, Álvaro González‐Reyes, Fleur Couvreux, Vladimir V Matskovsky, Juan Carlos Aravena, Antonio Lara, Ignacio A. Mundo, Facundo Rojas, M. R. Prieto, Jason E. Smerdon, Lucas O. Bianchi, Mariano Masiokas, R. Urrutia, Milagros Rodríguez‐Catón, Ariel A. Muñoz, Moisés Rojas-Badilla, Claudio A. Álvarez, Lidio López, Brian H. Luckman, David Lister, Ian Harris, P. D. Jones, Park Williams, Velazquez Gonzalo, Diego Aliste, Isabella Aguilera‐Betti, Eugenia Marcotti, Felipe Flores, Tomás Muñoz, Emilio Cuq, José A. Boninsegna,

Climate variability and models

Significance The SADA is an annually-resolved hydroclimate atlas in South America that spans the continent south of 12°S from 1400 to 2000 CE. Based on 286 tree ring records and instrumentally-based estimates of soil moisture, the SADA complements six drought atlases worldwide filling a geographical gap in the Southern Hemisphere. Independently validated with historical records, SADA shows that the frequency of widespread severe droughts and extreme pluvials since the 1960s is unprecedented. Major hydroclimate events expressed in the SADA are associated with strong El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) anomalies. Coupled ENSO-SAM anomalies together with subtropical low-level jet intensification due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions may cause more extreme droughts and pluvials in South America during the 21st century.