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Modelling the renewable transition: Scenarios and pathways for a decarbonized future using pymedeas, a new open-source energy systems model

2020; Elsevier BV; Volume: 132; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.rser.2020.110105

1879-0690

Jordi Solé, Roger Samsó, Emilio Garcı́a-Ladona, Antonio Garcı́a-Olivares, Joaquim Ballabrera‐Poy, Teresa Madurell, Antonio Turiel, Oleg Osychenko, Darío Álvarez Álvarez, Ugo Bardi, Martin Baumann, Kat Buchmann, Iñigo Capellán‐Pérez, Martin Černý, Óscar Carpintero, Ignacio de Blas, Carlos de Castro, J.-D. De Lathouwer, Carmen Duce, Lukas Eggler, Javier Enriquez, Sara Falsini, Kuishuang Feng, N. Ferreras, Fernando Frechoso, Klaus Hubacek, Aled Jones, R. Kaclíková, Christian Kerschner, Christian Kimmich, Luis Fernando Lobejón, Pedro L. Lomas, Gianluca Martelloni, Margarita Mediavilla, Luis Miguel, Davide Natalini, Jaime Nieto, Angel Nikolaev, G. Parrado, Stavroula Papagianni, Ilaria Perissi, C. Ploiner, Lulin Radulov, Paula Rodrigo, Laixiang Sun, M. Theofilidi,

Environmental Impact and Sustainability

This paper reviews different approaches to modelling the energy transition towards a zero carbon economy. It identifies a number of limitations in current approaches such as a lack of consideration of out-of-equilibrium situations (like an energy transition) and non-linear feedbacks. To tackle those issues, the new open source integrated assessment model pymedeas is introduced, which allows the exploration of the design and planning of appropriate strategies and policies for decarbonizing the energy sector at World and EU level. The main novelty of the new open-source model is that it addresses the energy transition by considering biophysical limits, availability of raw materials, and climate change impacts. This paper showcases the model capabilities through several simulation experiments to explore alternative pathways for the renewable transition. In the selected scenarios of this work, future shortage of fossil fuels is found to be the most influential factor of the simulations system evolution. Changes in efficiency and climate change damages are also important determinants influencing model outcomes.