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Common cardiovascular risk factors and in-hospital mortality in 3,894 patients with COVID-19: survival analysis and machine learning-based findings from the multicentre Italian CORIST Study

2020; Elsevier BV; Volume: 30; Issue: 11 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.numecd.2020.07.031

1590-3729

Augusto Di Castelnuovo, Marialaura Bonaccio, Simona Costanzo, Alessandro Gialluisi, Andrea Antinori, Nausicaa Berselli, Lorenzo Blandi, Raffaele Bruno, Roberto Cauda, Giovanni Guaraldi, Ilaria My, Lorenzo Menicanti, Giustino Parruti, Giuseppe Patti, Stefano Perlini, Francesca Santilli, Carlo Signorelli, Giulio Stefanini, Alessandra Vergori, Amina Abdeddaim, Walter Ageno, Antonella Agodi, Piergiuseppe Agostoni, Luca Maria Aiello, Samir Al Moghazi, Filippo Aucella, Greta Barbieri, Alessandro Bartoloni, Carolina Bologna, Paolo Bonfanti, Serena Brancati, Francesco Cacciatore, Lucia Caiano, F. Cannata, Laura Carrozzi, Antonio Cascio, Antonella Cingolani, Francesco Cipollone, Claudia Colomba, Annalisa Crisetti, Francesca Crosta, Gian Battista Danzi, Damiano D’Ardes, Katleen de Gaetano Donati, Francesco Di Gennaro, Gisella Di Palma, Giuseppe Di Tano, Massimo Fantoni, Tommaso Filippini, Paola Fioretto, Francesco Maria Fusco, Ivan Gentile, Leonardo Grisafi, Gabriella Guarnieri, Francesco Landi, Giovanni Larizza, Armando Leone, Gloria Maccagni, Sandro Maccarella, Massimo Mapelli, Riccardo Maragna, Rossella Marcucci, Giulio Maresca, Claudia Marotta, Lorenzo Marra, Franco Mastroianni, Alessandro Mengozzi, Francesco Menichetti, Jovana Milić, Rita Murri, Arturo Montineri, Roberta Mussinelli, Cristina Mussini, Maria Musso, Anna Odone, Marco Olivieri, Emanuela Pasi, Francesco Petri, Biagio Pinchera, Carlo Andrea Pivato, Roberto Pizzi, Venerino Poletti, Francesca Raffaelli, Claudia Ravaglia, Giulia Righetti, Andrea Rognoni, Marco Rossato, Marianna Rossi, Anna Sabena, Francesco Salinaro, Vincenzo Sangiovanni, Carlo Sanrocco, Antonio Scarafino, Laura Scorzolini, Raffaella Sgariglia, Paola Simeone, Enrico Guido Spinoni, Carlo Torti, Enrico Maria Trecarichi, Francesca Vezzani, Giovanni Veronesi, Roberto Vettor, Andrea Vianello, Marco Vinceti, Raffaele De Caterina, Licia Iacoviello,

Long-Term Effects of COVID-19

Background and aimsThere is poor knowledge on characteristics, comorbidities and laboratory measures associated with risk for adverse outcomes and in-hospital mortality in European Countries. We aimed at identifying baseline characteristics predisposing COVID-19 patients to in-hospital death.Methods and resultsRetrospective observational study on 3894 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalized from February 19th to May 23rd, 2020 and recruited in 30 clinical centres distributed throughout Italy. Machine learning (random forest)-based and Cox survival analysis. 61.7% of participants were men (median age 67 years), followed up for a median of 13 days. In-hospital mortality exhibited a geographical gradient, Northern Italian regions featuring more than twofold higher death rates as compared to Central/Southern areas (15.6% vs 6.4%, respectively). Machine learning analysis revealed that the most important features in death classification were impaired renal function, elevated C reactive protein and advanced age. These findings were confirmed by multivariable Cox survival analysis (hazard ratio (HR): 8.2; 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.6–14.7 for age ≥85 vs 18–44 y); HR = 4.7; 2.9–7.7 for estimated glomerular filtration rate levels <15 vs ≥ 90 mL/min/1.73 m2; HR = 2.3; 1.5–3.6 for C-reactive protein levels ≥10 vs ≤ 3 mg/L). No relation was found with obesity, tobacco use, cardiovascular disease and related-comorbidities. The associations between these variables and mortality were substantially homogenous across all sub-groups analyses.ConclusionsImpaired renal function, elevated C-reactive protein and advanced age were major predictors of in-hospital death in a large cohort of unselected patients with COVID-19, admitted to 30 different clinical centres all over Italy.