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To What Extent Biomass Burning Aerosols Impact South America Seasonal Climate Predictions?

2020; American Geophysical Union; Volume: 47; Issue: 16 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1029/2020gl088096

1944-8007

Julliana L. M. Freire, K. Longo, Saulo R. Freitas, Caio A. S. Coelho, Andrea Molod, Jelena Marshak, Arlindo da Silva, Bruno Z. Ribeiro,

Atmospheric aerosols and clouds

Abstract We applied the Goddard Earth Observing System for subseasonal to seasonal climate prediction to assess the impact of inclusion biomass burning (BB) aerosols over South America (SA) during the austral winter. We also evaluated the model sensitivity to the BB emissions prescription using no emissions, monthly climatological, and daily emissions. Each hindcast consisted of four members running from June to November of each year between 2000 and 2015. Our results indicated that interactive BB aerosols improve the seasonal climate prediction performance over SA. More realistic daily based emissions significantly further improve the performance in comparison with the climatological ones. Therefore, improvements in the BB emissions representation are urged to represent the aerosol impacts on seasonal climate prediction performance adequately.