Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Artigo Acesso aberto Produção Nacional Revisado por pares

BIBTEX RIS

Recurrence quantification analysis of monthly rainfall time series in Pernambuco, Brazil

2020; Grupo de Pesquisa Metodologias em Ensino e Aprendizagem em Ciências; Volume: 9; Issue: 9 Linguagem: Inglês

10.33448/rsd-v9i9.7737

2525-3409

Leika Irabele Tenório de Santana, Antônio Samuel Alves da Silva, Rômulo Simões Cézar Menezes, Tatijana Stošić,

Remote Sensing in Agriculture

Precipitation is the main climatic variable that is used for modeling risks indices for natural disasters. We investigated nonlinear dynamics of monthly rainfall temporal series recorded from 1962 to 2012, at three stations in Pernambuco state, Brazil, located in regions with different rainfall regime (Zona da Mata, Agreste and Sertão), provided by the Meteorological Laboratory of the Institute of Technology of Pernambuco (Laboratório de Meteorologia do Instituto de Tecnologia de Pernambuco – LAMEP/ITEP). The objective of this work is to contribute to a better understanding of the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall in the state of Pernambuco. We use the methodology from nonlinear dynamics theory, Recurrence plot (RP) that allows to distinguish between different types of underlying processes. The results showed that rainfall regime in deep inland semiarid Sertão region is characterized by weaker and less complex deterministic behavior, comparing to Zona da Mata and Agreste, where we identified transitions between chaotic and nonstationary type of dynamics. For transitional Agreste region rainfall dynamics showed stronger memory with longer mean prediction time, while for sub humid Zona da Mata rainfall dynamics is characterized by laminar (slowly changing) states.