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What can we expect from first-generation COVID-19 vaccines?

2020; Elsevier BV; Volume: 396; Issue: 10261 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/s0140-6736(20)31976-0

1474-547X

Malik Peiris, GM Leung,

COVID-19 epidemiological studies

A first generation of COVID-19 vaccines is expected to gain approval as soon as the end of 2020 or early 2021. A popular assumption is that these vaccines will provide population immunity that can reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and lead to a resumption of pre-COVID-19 "normalcy". Given an initial reproduction number of around 2·2,1 which has since been revised to as high as about 4, and taking into account overdispersion of infections,2 perhaps about 25–50% of the population would have to be immune to the virus to achieve suppression of community transmission.