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Prediction of Global Functional Outcome and Post-Concussive Symptoms after Mild Traumatic Brain Injury: External Validation of Prognostic Models in the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) Study

2020; Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1089/neu.2020.7074

1557-9042

Ana Mikolić, Suzanne Polinder, Ewout W. Steyerberg, Isabel R. A. Retel Helmrich, Joseph T. Giacino, Andrew I.R. Maas, Joukje van der Naalt, Daphne Voormolen, Nicole von Steinbüchel, Lindsay Wilson, Hester F. Lingsma, David van Klaveren, Cecilia Åkerlund, Krisztina Amrein, Nada Anđelić, Lasse Andreassen, Audny Anke, Anna Antoni, Gérard Audibert, Philippe Azouvi, Maria Luisa Azzolini, Ronald Bartels, Pál Barzó, Romuald Beauvais, Ronny Beer, Bo‐Michael Bellander, Antonio Belli, Habib Benali, Maurizio Berardino, Luigi Beretta, Morten Blaabjerg, Peter Bragge, Alexandra Bražinová, Vibeke Brinck, Joanne Brooker, Camilla Brorsson, András Büki, Monika Bullinger, Manuel Cabeleira, Alessio Caccioppola, Emiliana Calappi, Maria Rosa Calvi, Peter Cameron, Guillermo Carbayo Lozano, Marco Carbonara, Ana M. Castaño‐León, Simona Cavallo, Giorgio Chevallard, Arturo Chieregato, Giuseppe Citerio, ASST di Monza, Iris Ceyisakar, Hans Clusmann, Mark Coburn, Jonathan Coles, D. James Cooper, Marta Correia, Amra Čović, Nicola Curry, Endre Czeiter, Marek Czosnyka, Claire Dahyot‐Fizelier, Paul Dark, Helen Dawes, Véronique De Keyser, Vincent Degos, Françesco Della Corte, Hugo den Boogert, Bart Depreitere, Đula Đilvesi, Abhishek Dixit, Emma Donoghue, Jens P. Dreier, Guy‐Loup Dulière, Ari Ercole, Patrick Esser, Erzsébet Ezer, Martin Fabricius, Valery L. Feigin, Kelly Foks, Shirin Frisvold, Alex Furmanov, Pablo Gagliardo, Damien Galanaud, Dashiell Gantner, Guoyi Gao, Pradeep George, Alexandre Ghuysne, Lelde Giga, Ben Glocker, Jagoš Golubović, Pedro A. Gómez, Johannes Gratz, Benjamin Gravesteijn, Francesca Grossi, Russell L. Gruen, Deepak Gupta, Juanita A. Haagsma, Iain Haitsma, Raimund Helbok, Eirik Helseth, Lindsay Horton, Jilske Huijben, Peter J. Hutchinson, Bram Jacobs, Stefan Jankowski, Mike Jarrett, Jiyao Jiang, Faye Johnson, Kelly Jones, Mladen Karan, Angelos G. Kolias, Erwin J. O. Kompanje, Daniel Kondziella, Evgenios Koraropoulos, Lars‐Owe Koskinen, Noémi Kovács, Ana Kowark, Alfonso Lagares, Linda Lanyon, Steven Laureys, Fiona Lecky, Didier Ledoux, Rolf Lefering, Valérie Legrand, Aurélie Lejeune, Leon Levi, Roger Lightfoot, Marc Maegele, Marek Majdán, Alex Manara, Geoffrey T. Manley, Costanza Martino, Hugues Maréchal, Julia Mattern, Catherine McMahon, Béla Melegh, David Menon, Tomas Menovsky, Benoît Misset, Visakh Muraleedharan, Lynnette Murray, Ancuța Negru, David Nelson, Virginia Newcombe, Daan Nieboer, József Nyirádi, Otesile Olubukola, Matej Orešič, Fabrizio Ortolano, Aarno Palotie, Paul M. Parizel, Jean‐François Payen, Natascha Perera, Vincent Perlbarg, Paolo Persona, Wilco C. Peul, Anna Piippo-Karjalainen, Matti Pirinen, Horia Pleș, Iñigo Pomposo, Jussi P. Posti, Louis Puybasset, Andreea Rădoi, Arminas Ragauskas, Rahul Raj, Malinka Rambadagalla, Jonathan R. Rhodes, Sylvia Richardson, Sophie Richter, Samuli Ripatti, Saulius Ročka, Cecilie Røe, Olav Røise, Jonathan Rosand, Jeffrey V. Rosenfeld, Christina Rosenlund, Guy Rosenthal, Rolf Rossaint, Sandra Rossi, Daniel Rueckert, Martin Rusňák, Juan Sahuquillo, Oliver Sakowitz, Renán Sánchez-Porras, János Sándor, Nadine Schäfer, Silke Schmidt, Herbert Schöechl, Guus Schoonman, Rico Frederik Schou, Elisabeth Schwendenwein, Charlie Sewalt, Toril Skandsen, Peter Smielewski, Abayomi Sorinola, Emmanuel A. Stamatakis, Simon Stanworth, Robert D. Stevens, William Stewart, Ewout W. Steyerberg, Nino Stocchetti, Nina Sundström, Anneliese Synnot, Riikka Takala, Viktória Tamás, Tomas Tamošuitis, Mark Taylor, Braden Te Ao, Olli Tenovuo, Alice Theadom, Matt Thomas, Dick Tibboel, Marjolein Timmers, Christos Tolias, Tony Trapani, Cristina Maria Tudora, Peter Vajkoczy, Shirley Vallance, Egils Valeinis, Zoltán Vámos, Mathieu van der Jagt, Gregory Van der Steen, Joukje van der Naalt, Jeroen T.J.M. van Dijck, Thomas A. van Essen, Wim Van Hecke, Caroline van Heugten, Dominique Van Praag, Thijs Vande Vyvere, Roel P. J. van Wijk, Alessia Vargiolu, Emmanuel Vega, Kimberley Velt, Jan Verheyden, Paul Vespa, Anne VikRimantas Vilcinis, Victor Volovici, Daphne Voormolen, Petar Vuleković, Kevin Wang, Guy Williams, Lindsay Wilson, Stefan Winzeck, Stefan Wolf, Zhihui Yang, Peter Ylén, Alexander Younsi, Frederick A. Zeiler, Veronika Zelinkova, Agate Ziverte, Tommaso Zoerle,

Cardiac Arrest and Resuscitation

The majority of traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) are categorized as mild, according to a baseline Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score of 13-15. Prognostic models that were developed to predict functional outcome and persistent post-concussive symptoms (PPCS) after mild TBI have rarely been externally validated. We aimed to externally validate models predicting 3-12-month Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE) or PPCS in adults with mild TBI. We analyzed data from the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) project, which included 2862 adults with mild TBI, with 6-month GOSE available for 2374 and Rivermead Post-Concussion Symptoms Questionnaire (RPQ) results available for 1605 participants. Model performance was evaluated based on calibration (graphically and characterized by slope and intercept) and discrimination (C-index). We validated five published models for 6-month GOSE and three for 6-month PPCS scores. The models used different cutoffs for outcome and some included symptoms measured 2 weeks post-injury. Discriminative ability varied substantially (C-index between 0.58 and 0.79). The models developed in the Corticosteroid Randomisation After Significant Head Injury (CRASH) trial for prediction of GOSE <5 discriminated best (C-index 0.78 and 0.79), but were poorly calibrated. The best performing models for PPCS included 2-week symptoms (C-index 0.75 and 0.76). In conclusion, none of the prognostic models for early prediction of GOSE and PPCS has both good calibration and discrimination in persons with mild TBI. In future studies, prognostic models should be tailored to the population with mild TBI, predicting relevant end-points based on readily available predictors.