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Impact of different exposure models and spatial resolution on the long-term effects of air pollution

2020; Elsevier BV; Volume: 192; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.envres.2020.110351

1096-0953

Claudio Gariazzo, Giuseppe Carlino, Camillo Silibello, G. Tinarelli, Matteo Renzi, Sandro Finardi, Nicola Pepe, Daniela Barbero, Paola Radice, Alessandro Marinaccio, Francesco Forastiere, Paola Michelozzi, Giovanni Viegi, Massimo Stafoggia, Carla Ancona, Angelini Paola, Stefania Argentini, Sandra Baldacci, Lucia Bisceglia, Michela Bonafede, Sergio Bonomo, Laura Bonvicini, Serena Broccoli, Giuseppe Brusasca, Simone Bucci, G. Calori, Giuseppe Carlino, Achille Cernigliaro, Antonio Chieti, Colacci Annamaria, de' Donato Francesca, Salvatore Fasola, Sandro Finardi, Francesco Forastiere, Claudia Galassi, Claudio Gariazzo, Giorgi Rossi Paolo, Stefania La Grutta, Gaetano Licitra, Maio Sara, Alessandro Marinaccio, Paola Michelozzi, Enrica Migliore, Antonino Moro, Alessandro Nanni, Marta Ottone, Federica Parmagnani, Nicola Pepe, Paola Radice, Andrea Ranzi, Matteo Renzi, Scondotto Salvatore, Matteo Scortichini, Camillo Silibello, Roberto Sozzi, Massimo Stafoggia, Tinarelli Gianni, Francesco Uboldi, Giovanni Viegi,

Urban Transport and Accessibility

Long-term exposure to air pollution has been related to mortality in several epidemiological studies. The investigations have assessed exposure using various methods achieving different accuracy in predicting air pollutants concentrations. The comparison of the health effects estimates are therefore challenging. This paper aims to compare the effect estimates of the long-term effects of air pollutants (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm, PM10, and nitrogen dioxide, NO2) on cause-specific mortality in the Rome Longitudinal Study, using exposure estimates obtained with different models and spatial resolutions. Annual averages of NO2 and PM10 were estimated for the year 2015 in a large portion of the Rome urban area (12 × 12 km2) applying three modelling techniques available at increasing spatial resolution: 1) a chemical transport model (CTM) at 1km resolution; 2) a land-use random forest (LURF) approach at 200m resolution; 3) a micro-scale Lagrangian particle dispersion model (PMSS) taking into account the effect of buildings structure at 4 m resolution with results post processed at different buffer sizes (12, 24, 52, 100 and 200 m). All the exposures were assigned at the residential addresses of 482,259 citizens of Rome 30+ years of age who were enrolled on 2001 and followed-up till 2015. The association between annual exposures and natural-cause, cardiovascular (CVD) and respiratory (RESP) mortality were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for individual and area-level confounders. We found different distributions of both NO2 and PM10 concentrations, across models and spatial resolutions. Natural cause and CVD mortality outcomes were all positively associated with NO2 and PM10 regardless of the model and spatial resolution when using a relative scale of the exposure such as the interquartile range (IQR): adjusted Hazard Ratios (HR), and 95% confidence intervals (CI), of natural cause mortality, per IQR increments in the two pollutants, ranged between 1.012 (1.004, 1.021) and 1.018 (1.007, 1.028) for the different NO2 estimates, and between 1.010 (1.000, 1.020) and 1.020 (1.008, 1.031) for PM10, with a tendency of larger effect for lower resolution exposures. The latter was even stronger when a fixed value of 10 μg/m3 is used to calculate HRs. Long-term effects of air pollution on mortality in Rome were consistent across different models for exposure assessment, and different spatial resolutions.