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Outcome Prediction after Moderate and Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: External Validation of Two Established Prognostic Models in 1742 European Patients

2020; Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.; Volume: 38; Issue: 10 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1089/neu.2020.7300

1557-9042

Simone A. Dijkland, Isabel R. A. Retel Helmrich, Daan Nieboer, Mathieu van der Jagt, Diederik W.J. Dippel, David Menon, Nino Stocchetti, Andrew I.R. Maas, Hester F. Lingsma, Ewout W. Steyerberg, Cecilia Åkerlund, Krisztina Amrein, Nada Anđelić, Lasse Andreassen, Audny Anke, Anna Antoni, Gérard Audibert, Philippe Azouvi, Maria Luisa Azzolini, Ronald Bartels, Pál Barzó, Romuald Beauvais, Ronny Beer, Bo‐Michael Bellander, Antonio Belli, Habib Benali, Maurizio Berardino, Luigi Beretta, Morten Blaabjerg, Peter Bragge, Alexandra Bražinová, Vibeke Brinck, Joanne Brooker, Camilla Brorsson, András Büki, Monika Bullinger, Manuel Cabeleira, Alessio Caccioppola, Emiliana Calappi, Maria Rosa Calvi, Peter Cameron, Guillermo Carbayo Lozano, Marco Carbonara, Giorgio Chevallard, Arturo Chieregato, Giuseppe Citerio, Maryse C. Cnossen, Mark Coburn, Jonathan Coles, D. James Cooper, Marta Correia, Amra Čović, Nicola Curry, Endre Czeiter, Marek Czosnyka, Claire Dahyot Fizelier, Helen Dawes, Véronique De Keyser, Vincent Degos, Françesco Della Corte, Hugo den Boogert, Bart Depreitere, Đula Đilvesi, Abhishek Dixit, Emma Donoghue, Jens P. Dreier, Guy Loup Dulière, Ari Ercole, Patrick Esser, Erzsébet Ezer, Martin Fabricius, Valery L. Feigin, Kelly Foks, Shirin Frisvold, Alex Furmanov, Pablo Gagliardo, Damien Galanaud, Dashiell Gantner, Guoyi Gao, Pradeep George, Alexandre Ghuysen, Lelde Giga, Ben Glocker, Jagoš Golubović, Pedro A. Gómez, Johannes Gratz, Benjamin Gravesteijn, Francesca Grossi, Russell L. Gruen, Deepak Gupta, Juanita A. Haagsma, Iain Haitsma, Raimund Helbok, Eirik Helseth, Lindsay Horton, Jilske Huijben, Peter J. Hutchinson, Bram Jacobs, Stefan Jankowski, Mike Jarrett, Jiyao Jiang, Kelly Jones, Mladen Karan, Angelos G. Kolias, Erwin J. O. Kompanje, Daniel Kondziella, Evgenios Koraropoulos, Lars Owe Koskinen, Noémi Kovács, Alfonso Lagares, Linda Lanyon, Steven Laureys, Fiona Lecky, Rolf Lefering, Valérie Legrand, Aurélie Lejeune, Leon Levi, Roger Lightfoot, Hester F. Lingsma, Ana M. Castaño‐León, Marc Maegele, Marek Majdán, Alex Manara, Geoffrey T. Manley, Costanza Martino, Hugues Maréchal, Julia Mattern, Catherine McMahon, Béla Melegh, David Menon, Tomas Menovsky, Davide Mulazzi, Visakh Muraleedharan, Lynnette Murray, Nandesh Nair, Ancuța Negru, David Nelson, Virginia Newcombe, Quentin Noirhomme, József Nyirádi, Otesile Olubukola, Matej Orešič, Fabrizio Ortolano, Aarno Palotie, Paul M. Parizel, Jean‐François Payen, Natascha Perera, Vincent Perlbarg, Paolo Persona, Wilco C. Peul, Anna Piippo-Karjalainen, Matti Pirinen, Horia Pleș, Suzanne Polinder, Iñigo Pomposo, Jussi P. Posti, Louis Puybasset, Andreea Rădoi, Arminas Ragauskas, Rahul Raj, Malinka Rambadagalla, Ruben Real, Jonathan R. Rhodes, Sylvia Richardson, Sophie Richter, Samuli Ripatti, Saulius Ročka, Cecilie Røe, Olav Røise, Jonathan Rosand, Jeffrey V. Rosenfeld, Christina Rosenlund, Guy Rosenthal, Rolf Rossaint, Sandra Rossi, Daniel Rueckert, Martin Rusňák, Juan Sahuquillo, Oliver Sakowitz, Renán Sánchez-Porras, János Sándor, Nadine Schäfer, Silke Schmidt, Herbert Schöechl, Guus Schoonman, Rico Frederik Schou, Elisabeth Schwendenwein, Charlie Sewalt, Toril Skandsen, Peter Smielewski, Abayomi Sorinola, Emmanuel A. Stamatakis, Simon Stanworth, Ana Stevanovic, Robert D. Stevens, William Stewart, Nina Sundström, Anneliese Synnot, Riikka Takala, Viktória Tamás, Tomas Tamošuitis, Mark Taylor, Braden Te Ao, Olli Tenovuo, Alice Theadom, Matt Thomas, Dick Tibboel, Marjolein Timmers, Christos Tolias, Tony Trapani, Cristina Maria Tudora, Peter Vajkoczy, Shirley Vallance, Egils Valeinis, Zoltán Vámos, Gregory Van der Steen, Joukje van der Naalt, Jeroen T.J.M. van Dijck, Thomas A. van Essen, Wim Van Hecke, Caroline van Heugten, Dominique Van Praag, Thijs Vande Vyvere, Audrey Vanhaudenhuyse, Roel P. J. van Wijk, Alessia Vargiolu, Emmanuel Vega, Kimberley Velt, Jan Verheyden, Paul Vespa, Anne Vik, Rimantas Vilcinis, Victor Volovici, Nicole von Steinbüchel, Daphne Voormolen, Petar Vuleković, Kevin Wang, Kevin Wang, Eveline Wiegers, Guy Williams, Lindsay Wilson, Stefan Winzeck, Stefan Wolf, Zhihui Yang, Peter Ylén, Alexander Younsi, Frederick A. Zeiler, Veronika Zelinkova, Agate Ziverte, Tommaso Zoerle,

Traumatic Brain Injury Research

The International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in Traumatic Brain Injury (IMPACT) and Corticoid Randomisation After Significant Head injury (CRASH) prognostic models predict functional outcome after moderate and severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). We aimed to assess their performance in a contemporary cohort of patients across Europe. The Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) core study is a prospective, observational cohort study in patients presenting with TBI and an indication for brain computed tomography. The CENTER-TBI core cohort consists of 4509 TBI patients available for analyses from 59 centers in 18 countries across Europe and Israel. The IMPACT validation cohort included 1173 patients with GCS ≤12, age ≥14, and 6-month Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOSE) available. The CRASH validation cohort contained 1742 patients with GCS ≤14, age ≥16, and 14-day mortality or 6-month GOSE available. Performance of the three IMPACT and two CRASH model variants was assessed with discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; AUC) and calibration (comparison of observed vs. predicted outcome rates). For IMPACT, model discrimination was good, with AUCs ranging between 0.77 and 0.85 in 1173 patients and between 0.80 and 0.88 in the broader CRASH selection (n = 1742). For CRASH, AUCs ranged between 0.82 and 0.88 in 1742 patients and between 0.66 and 0.80 in the stricter IMPACT selection (n = 1173). Calibration of the IMPACT and CRASH models was generally moderate, with calibration-in-the-large and calibration slopes ranging between -2.02 and 0.61 and between 0.48 and 1.39, respectively. The IMPACT and CRASH models adequately identify patients at high risk for mortality or unfavorable outcome, which supports their use in research settings and for benchmarking in the context of quality-of-care assessment.