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Demographic Epidemiologic Projections of Long-Term Care Needs in Selected European Countries: Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Poland

2012; RELX Group (Netherlands); Linguagem: Inglês

10.2139/ssrn.2005010

1556-5068

Luc Bonneux, Nicole van der Gaag, Govert Bijwaart,

Retirement, Disability, and Employment

Work Package 2 of the ANCIEN project assesses the future numbers of care-dependent elderly in four selected countries: Spain, Poland, Germany and the Netherlands. The estimates are consistent with the available disability data and the mortality forecasts of the EUROPOP 2008 scenarios. The results show the effects of assumptions about how old age disability and mortality are related, and assess the effects of smoking and BMI.