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COVID-19-related absence among surgeons: development of an international surgical workforce prediction model

2020; Wiley; Volume: 5; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1093/bjsopen/zraa021

2474-9842

Joana F F Simoes, Elizabeth Li, James Glasbey, Omar M. Omar, Alexis Arnaud, Ruth Blanco‐Colino, Josh Burke, Daoud Chaudhry, Miguel F Cunha, Muhammed Elhadi, Gaetano Gallo, Rohan R Gujjuri, Haytham M.A. Kaafarani, Hans Lederhuber, Ana Minaya‐Bravo, Dion Morton, Francesco Pata, Georgios Tsoulfas, Mary L Venn, Aneel Bhangu, Dmitri Nepogodiev, Omar M. Omar, Alexis Arnaud, Arda Işık, Haytham M.A. Kaafarani, C. Kloppers, Hans Lederhuber, James McCaul, Asif Mehraj, Ana Minaya‐Bravo, Ashrarur Rahman Mitul, David Moszkowicz, Naser Mugla, Francesco Pata, Alberto Porcu, Markus Quante, Salomone Di Saverio, Pritam Singh, Piergiorgio Solli, Antonino Spinelli, Philip Townend, Gabriëlle H. van Ramshorst, Alp Yıldız, Vipin Zamvar, Tom Abbott, Kwabena Siaw-Acheampong, Michel Adamina, Adesoji Ademuyiwa, Arnav Agarwal, Ehab Alameer, Derek Alderson, Felix Alakaloko, Osaid Alser, Knut Magne Augestad, Faris Ayasra, Brittany Bankhead-Kendall, Emma Barlow, Ruth Benson, Ruth Blanco‐Colino, Amanpreet Brar, Ana Minaya‐Bravo, Kerry Breen, Igor Lima Buarque, Edward Caruana, Moe Chaar, Sohini Chakrabortee, Daniel Cox, Miguel F Cunha, Moisés Cukier, Giana H. Davidson, Brett E Dawson, Anant Desai, Salomone Di Saverio, Thomas D Drake, John Edwards, Jonathan P Evans, Shebani Farik, Marco Fiore, J.E.F. Fitzgerald, Samuel Ford, Gaetano Gallo, Dhruva Ghosh, Gustavo Mendonça Ataíde Gomes, Ewen A. Griffiths, Rohan R Gujjuri, Constantine Halkias, Ewen M. Harrison, Emily Heritage, Peter Hutchinson, Arda Işık, Michael D. Jenkinson, Conor S Jones, Sivesh K. Kamarajah, Deborah S. Keller, Chetan Khatri, James M Keatley, Angelos G. Kolias, Ismaïl Lawani, Samuel Lawday, Sezai Leventoğlu, Elizabeth Li, Markus Löffler, Janet Martin, Hassan Mashbari, Dennis Mazingi, Siobhan C. McKay, Symeon Metallidis, Ana Minaya‐Bravo, Helen Mohan, Rachel M. Moore, Susan Moug, Dmitri Nepogodiev, Joshua S Ng-Kamstra, Milagros Niquen-Jimenez, Faustin Ntirenganya, Omar M. Omar, Oumaima Outani, Francesco Pata, Gianluca Pellino, Thomas Pinkney, Peter Pockney, Dejan Radenković, Antonio Ramos‐De la Medina, Carlos Rivera, Keith Roberts, April Camilla Roslani, Irène Santos, Andrew Schache, Andreas A. Schnitzbauer, Grant D. Stewart, Richard Shaw, Sebastian Shu, Kjetil Søreide, Antonino Spinelli, Sudha Sundar, Stephen Tabiri, Abhinav Tiwari, Philip Townend, Isobel M Trout, Gabriëlle H. van Ramshorst, Mary L Venn, Raghavan Vidya, Dale Vimalachandran, Oliver Warren, Richard Wilkin, Naomi Wright,

Global Health Workforce Issues

Abstract Background During the initial COVID-19 outbreak up to 28.4 million elective operations were cancelled worldwide, in part owing to concerns that it would be unsustainable to maintain elective surgery capacity because of COVID-19-related surgeon absence. Although many hospitals are now recovering, surgical teams need strategies to prepare for future outbreaks. This study aimed to develop a framework to predict elective surgery capacity during future COVID-19 outbreaks. Methods An international cross-sectional study determined real-world COVID-19-related absence rates among surgeons. COVID-19-related absences included sickness, self-isolation, shielding, and caring for family. To estimate elective surgical capacity during future outbreaks, an expert elicitation study was undertaken with senior surgeons to determine the minimum surgical staff required to provide surgical services while maintaining a range of elective surgery volumes (0, 25, 50 or 75 per cent). Results Based on data from 364 hospitals across 65 countries, the COVID-19-related absence rate during the initial 6 weeks of the outbreak ranged from 20.5 to 24.7 per cent (mean average fortnightly). In weeks 7–12, this decreased to 9.2–13.8 per cent. At all times during the COVID-19 outbreak there was predicted to be sufficient surgical staff available to maintain at least 75 per cent of regular elective surgical volume. Overall, there was predicted capacity for surgeon redeployment to support the wider hospital response to COVID-19. Conclusion This framework will inform elective surgical service planning during future COVID-19 outbreaks. In most settings, surgeon absence is unlikely to be the factor limiting elective surgery capacity.