Hot and cold hands on the PGA Tour: Do they exist?
2018; IOS Press; Volume: 4; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês
10.3233/jsa-180214
ISSN2215-0218
AutoresRyan Elmore, Andrew Urbaczewski,
Tópico(s)Sports, Gender, and Society
ResumoIn this paper, we examine the “hot hand” (and “cold hand”) phenomenon as it relates to the PGA Tour using data from the 2013-4 PGA Tour season. For this study, we define “hot hand” in golf as having a greater probability of recording a birdie or better on a hole immediately following a birdie or better. Similarly, a “cold hand” is thought of as having a greater probability of recording a bogey or worse following a bogey or worse. The basis of our hot/cold hand model is centered around each hole’s relative difficulty on a particular day, the actual par rating of the hole, and a random player effect. Our results seem to agree with most of the related work on hot hand effects in basketball, golf, and other sports; namely, that there is simply not enough evidence to suggest that the hot hand phenomenon exists. On the other hand, the presence of a cold hand effect is highly significant, particularly on par 4 holes. Finally, we present the development and results of a large-scale power analysis simulation study in support of our proposed methodology.
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