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Now-Casting and the Real-time Data Flow

2013; RELX Group (Netherlands); Linguagem: Inglês

10.2139/ssrn.2284274

1556-5068

Marta Bánbura, Domenico Giannone, Michèle Modugno, Lucrezia Reichlin,

Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis

The term now-casting is a contraction for now and forecasting and has been used for a long-time in meteorology and recently also in economics. In this paper we survey recent developments in economic now-casting with special focus on those models that formalize key features of how market participants and policy makers read macroeconomic data releases in real time, which involves: monitoring many data, forming expectations about them and revising the assessment on the state of the economy whenever realizations diverge sizeably from those expectations. (Prepared for G. Elliott and A. Timmermann, eds., Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Volume 2, Elsevier-North Holland)