Double Jeopardy: Climate Insecurities and Their Implications for Asian Armed Forces
2011; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 11; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/14702436.2011.590048
ISSN1743-9698
Autores Tópico(s)Transboundary Water Resource Management
ResumoClick to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Acknowledgements The author greatly appreciates the support of the Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies based at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, where he completed the paper as a visiting associate fellow. He would also like to thank Jackson Ewing, I'dil Syawfi, Iis Gindarsah, Hazelia Margaretha, and several active and retired military officers for their assistance and comments on an earlier draft. All interpretations are the author's sole responsibility. Notes 1. Alan Dupont, 'The Strategic Implications of Climate Change', Survival50/. 3 (Autumn 2008) p. 30. 2. See for example Paul G. Harris (ed.), 'Climate Change and Foreign Policy: Case Studies from East to West' (London: Routledge 2009). 3. Cited from Stew Magnuson, 'Climate Change Fears Spill Over to the Defense Community', National Defense Magazine, Aug. 2008. 4. See for example, Kurt M. Campbell (ed.), 'Climatic Cataclysm: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Climate Change' (Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press 2008); Oli Brown and Robert McLeman, 'A Recurring Anarchy? The Emergence of Climate Change as a Threat to International Peace and Security', Conflict, Security, and Development 9/ 3 (July 2009) pp. 289–305. 5. For the environmental security literature, see Richard A. Matthew et. al., 'Global Environmental Change and Human Security' (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press 2009); Thomas F. Homer-Dixon, 'Environment, Scarcity, and Violence' (Princeton U P 2001). For a critical review, see John McNeill, 'Diamond in the Rough: Is There a Genuine Environmental Threat to Security,' International Security.30/ 1 (2005) pp. 178–95. 6. See for example Richard Ullman, 'Redefining Security', International Security 8/ 1 (1989) pp. 162–77; Ian Rowlands, 'The Security Challenges of Global Environmental Challenge', Washington Quarterly 14/. 1 (1991) pp. 99–113. 7. See Thomas F. Homer-Dixon, 'On the Threshold: Environmental Change as Causes of Acute Conflict', International Security 16/ 2 (1991) pp. 76–116; Colin H. Kahl, 'States, Scarcity, and Civil Strife in the Developing World' (Princeton U P 2006). 8. For the UK, see J.J. Bailey, 'Is It Practical for Defence to reduce its Carbon Emissions without Affecting its Effectiveness', Defence Studies. 9/. 1 (March 2009) pp. 47–84. For the U.S, see Joshua W. Busby, 'Who Cares About the Weather? Climate Change and US National Security', Security Studies, Vol. 17 (2008) pp. 468–504; Herb Carmen, Christine Parthemore, and Will Rogers, 'Broadening Horizons: Climate Change and the US Armed Forces' (Washington DC: Center for a New American Security 2010). 9. See Robert F. Durant, 'The Greening of the US Military: Environmental Policy, National Security and Organizational Change' (Washington DC: Georgetown U P 2007); 'Adaptability and Partnership: Issues for the Strategic Defence Review' (London, UK: Ministry of Defence 2010). 10. See Robert J. Nicholls, 'Coastal Flooding and Wetland Loss in the 21st Century: Changes under the SREs Climate and Socio-Economic Scenarios', Global Environmental Change 14/ 1 (2004) p. 79. 11. See 'Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change' (Cambridge: Cambridge U P 2007) pp. 7–22. 12. The concept of 'natural security' is developed in Christine Parthermore and Will Rogers, 'Sustaining Security: How Natural Resources Influence National Security' (Washington DC: Center for a New American Security 2010). 13. Source: Summarized and Adapted from M.L. Parry et al., eds. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007): 7–22. 14. James R. Lee, 'Climate Change and Armed Conflict: Hot and Cold Wars' (London: Routledge 2009) pp. 3–7. 15. Nicholas Stern, 'The Economics of Climate Change' (Cambridge: Cambridge U P 2007). 16. See Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), (note 11). 17. Idean Salehyan and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, 'Refugee Flows and the Spread of Civil War', International Organization60/. 2 (2006) pp. 335–66. 18. Norman Myers, 'Environmental Refugees: A Growing Phenomenon of the 21st Century', Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Vol. 357, No. 1420 (2002) pp. 609–13. 19. John Podesta and Peter Ogden, 'The Security Implications of Climate Change', Washington Quarterly,. 31/ 1 (Winter 2007–8) p. 117. 20. Alan Dupont, 'The Environment and Security in Pacific Asia', Adelphi Paper No. 319 (London: OUP for IISS 1998) p. 18. 21. Paul J. Smith, 'Climate Change, Mass Migration, and the Military Response', Orbis. 51/ 4 (2007) p. 619. 22. See Christopher Rudolph, 'Security and the Political Economy of International Migration', American Political Science Review. 97/4 (Nov. 2003) pp. 603–20. 23. Dupont (note 1) p. 32. 24. Cullen S. Hendrix and Sarah M. Glaser, 'Trends and Triggers: Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa', Journal of Political Geography 26/ 6 (2007) pp. 695–715. 25. Dupont (note 1) p. 33. 26. Cited from Ben Vogel, 'Climate change creates security challenge more complex that Cold War', Jane's Defence Weekly, 30 Jan. 2007. 27. Cited from Jurgen Scheffran, 'Climate Change and Security', Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists64/. 2 (2008) p. 20. 28. Michael T. Klare, 'Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict' (New York: Henry Holt 2001) p. 215. 29. This assessment is based on International Crisis Group, Climate Change and Conflict, (accessed on 28 Aug. 2010). 30. Bernard D. Cole, 'Sea Lanes and Pipelines: Energy Security in Asia' (Westport, CT: Praeger Security International 2008) p. 8. 31. Kuen-chen Fu, 'Regional Cooperation for Conservation and Management of Fishery Resources in the South China Sea', in China-ASEAN Relations: Economic and Legal Dimensions, (eds.) John Wong, Zou Keyuan, and Zeng Huaqun (Hackensack, NJ: World Scientific 2006) pp. 220–1. 32. Nicolas Lefvre, 'Energy Security and Climate Policy: Assessing the Interactions' (Paris: International Energy Agency 2007) p. 28. 33. Toufiq A. Siddiqi, 'The Environmental Context of Energy', in Asia's Energy Future: Regional Dynamics and Global Implications, (eds.) Kang Wu and Fereidun Fesharaki (Honolulu: The East-West Center 2007) p. 23. 34. Dupont (note 1) p. 34. 35. In practice of course, there are other dimensions of energy security, such as long-term physical availability of supplies and potential disruptions from acts of terrorism. 36. Widhyawan Prawiraaymadja, Kang Wu, Hassan Vahidy, and Fereidun Fesharaki, 'Oil,' in Asia's Energy Future (note 32) p. 45. 37. Will Rogers, 'Promoting the Dialogue: Climate Change and America's Air Forces' (Washington DC: Center for a New AmericanSecurity 2010) p. 6. 38. Dupont (note 1) p. 36. 39. Kent E. Calder, 'Asia's Deadly Triangle: How Arms, Energy and Growth Threaten to Destabilize Asia-Pacific' (London: Nicholas Brealey Publishing 1996) pp. 47–8. 40. Kang Wu, Jeffrey G. Brown, and Toufiq A. Siddiqi, 'The Asia Pacific Energy Dilemma', in Asia's Energy Future (note 32) p. 1. 41. Shankar K. Karki, Michael D. Mann, and Hossein Salehfar, 'Energy and Environment in the ASEAN: Challenges and Opportunities', Energy Policy, Vol. 33 (2005) p. 499. 42. Only around 39 per cent of maritime boundaries are partially resolved. See Clive Schofield and Ian Storey, 'Energy Security and Southeast Asia: The Impact on Maritime Boundary and Territorial Disputes,' Harvard Asia Quarterly (Fall 2005, (accessed on 25 Aug. 2010). 43. Zhang Xuegang, 'Southeast Asia and Energy: Gateway to Stability', China Security3/2 (2007) p. 19. 44. The cost per barrel per 1,000 kilometres is $ 0.163 by tanker, $ 0.793 by pipeline, and $ 7.19 by train. Cited from Cole (note 29) p. 1. 45. Dupont (note 1) p. 37. 46. World Health Organization, World Health Report 2002: Reducing Risks, Promoting Healthy Life (Geneva: World Health Organization – 2002) p. 72. 47. See Asef Anyemba et al., 'Developing Global Climate Anomalies Suggest Potential Disease Risks for 2006 – 2007', International Journal of Health Geographic, Vol. 5 (2006) pp. 60–8. 48. See Podesta and Ogden (note 18) p. 123. 49. See for example, Susan Peterson, 'Epidemic Disease and National Security', Security Studies. 12/ 2 (2002) pp. 43–81. 50. Christopher Jasparro and Jonathan Taylor, 'Climate Change and Regional Vulnerability to Transnational Security Threats in Southeast Asia', Geopolitics, Vol. 13 (2008) p. 248. 51. See Nigel Purvis and Joshua Busby, 'The Security Implications of Climate Change for the UN System' (Princeton, NJ: Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars 2004). 52. Kerry Emanuel, 'Increasing Destructiveness of Tropical Cyclones over the Past 30 Years', Nature, Vol. 436, No. 7051 (2005) pp. 686–8; C.D. Hoyos, P.A. Agudelo, P.J. Webster, J.A. Curry, 'Deconvolution of the Factors Contributing to the Increase in Global Hurricane Intensity', Science, Vol. 312 (2006) pp. 94–7. 53. See Dawn Brancati, 'Political Aftershocks: The Impact of Earthquakes on Intrastate Conflict', Journal of Conflict Resolution. 51/ 5 (2007) pp. 715–43. 54. Philip Nel and Marjolein Righarts, 'Natural Disasters and the Risk of Violent Civil Conflict' International Studies Quarterly. 52/ 1 (2008) pp. 159–85. 55. E. Thomas Morehouse, Jr, 'Opportunities or Obstacles for the Military', in Global Climate Change: National Security Implications, (ed.) Carolyn Pumphrey (Carlisle, PA: US Strategic Studies Institute 2008) p. 284. 56. Dupont, (note 1), p. 31. 57. Morehouse, Jr., (note 54), p. 283. 58. For more detail, see Axel Michaelowa and Tobias Koch, 'Military Emissions, Armed Conflict, Border Changes, and the Kyoto Protocol', Climatic Change, Vol. 50 (2001) pp. 383–94. 59. Michael T. Klare, 'Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy' (New York: Henry Holt 2008) p. 7. 60. William T. Tow, 'Strategic Dimensions of Energy Competition in Asia', in Energy Security in Asia, (ed.) Michael Wesley (London: Routledge 2007) p. 161. 61. 'Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific' (Manila: The Asian Development Bank and APEC 2009) p. 42. 62. Cited from Dupont (note 19) p. 31. 63. See 'South China Sea', US Energy Information Administration, (accessed on 25 Sept. 2010). 64. Dupont, (note 1) p. 36. 65. In recent years, China, India, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia Thailand and Vietnam are all expanding their surface and sub-surface combatants and overall naval capabilities. 66. 'The Military in Disaster Relief', IISS Strategic Comments41/ 6 (Aug.t 2008) p. 2. 67. 'Asian Armies' Main Enemy Must Be Natural Disasters,', The Jakarta Globe, 7 June 2010. 68. See for example, Jay Levinson, 'Military Involvement in Disaster Response', in Disaster Management Handbook, (ed.) Jack Pinkowski (Abingdon, UK: CRC Press 2008), Ch. 21. 69. Bruce R. Piernie and Corazon M. Fransisco, 'Assessing Requirements for Peacekeeping, Humanitarian Asssistance, and Disaster Relief' (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation 1998) p. 24. 70. Robert Egnell, 'Between Reluctance and Necessity: The Utility of Military Force in Humanitarian and Development Operations', Small Wars and Insurgencies19/ 3 (2008) p. 411. 71. W. Chris King, 'Understanding International Environmental Security: A Strategic Military Perspective' (Atlanta, GA: Army Environmental Policy Institute 2000) p. 19. 72. Rosalie Arcala Hall, 'Civil-Military Cooperation in International Disaster Response: The Japanese Self-Defense Forces' Deployment in Aceh, Indonesia,', Korean Journal of Defense Analysis20/ 4 (2008) pp. 384–5. 73. Sharon Burke et al. 'Uncharted Waters: The US Navy and Navigating Climate Change' (Washington DC: Center for a New American Security 2008) p. 7. 74. Gordon I. Peterson and Dave Werner, 'Undersea Science at the Top of the World', Undersea Warfare, 1/ 4 (1999), <,http://www.navy.mil/navydata/cno/n87/usw/issue_4/scicex_99.html> (accessed on 24 Feb. 2010). 75. Keith C. Hester, Edward T. Peltzer, William J. Kirkwood, and Peter J. Brewer, 'Unanticipated Consequences of Ocean Acidification: A Noisier Ocean at Lower pH', Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35 (2008) p. 5. 76. Ronald A. Kreizenbeck, 'Environmental Aspects of Managing Natural Resource Assets within the Military Sector', in Defense and the Environment: Effective Scientific Communication, (eds.) Katarina Mahutova, John J. Barich, and Ronald A. Kreizenbeck (New York: Kluwer Academic 2004) p. 15. 77. See Carmen, Parthemore, and Rogers (note 8.) p. 3. 78. Jerry Warner and P.W. Singer, 'Fueling the 'Balance': A Defense Energy Strategy Primer', Foreign Policy Paper No. 17 (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 2009), p. 2. 79. John J. Barich, 'Environmental Management Systems, Reliability Management, and Vulnerability Assessments: Potential within Contemporary Security Settings', in Defense and the Environment (note 75) p. 105. 80. Scott Thomas and David Kerner, Defense Energy Resilience: Lessons from Ecology (Carlisle, PA: US Army War College 2010) p. 7. 81. Michael Dawson, 'Environmental Management Systems in the Military Sector', in Defense and the Environment (note 75) p. 75. 82. Bailey, (note 8) p. 70. 83. Ibid., p. 75. 84. Rogers (note 36).
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