The forecast quality of CBOE implied volatility indexes
2005; Wiley; Volume: 25; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1002/fut.20148
ISSN1096-9934
AutoresCharles J. Corrado, Thomas W. Miller,
Tópico(s)Stochastic processes and financial applications
ResumoWe examine the forecast quality of Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) implied volatility indexes based on the Nasdaq 100 and Standard and Poor's 100 and 500 stock indexes. We find that the forecast quality of CBOE implied volatilities for the S&P 100 (VXO) and S&P 500 (VIX) has improved since 1995. Implied volatilities for the Nasdaq 100 (VXN) appear to provide even higher quality forecasts of future volatility. We further find that attenuation biases induced by the econometric problem of errors in variables appear to have largely disappeared from CBOE volatility index data since 1995. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:339–373, 2005
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