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Prospect theory, mental accounting, and momentum

2005; Elsevier BV; Volume: 78; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.jfineco.2004.10.006

1879-2774

Mark Grinblatt, Bing Han,

Stock Market Forecasting Methods

The tendency of some investors to hold on to their losing stocks, driven by prospect theory and mental accounting, creates a spread between a stock's fundamental value and its equilibrium price, as well as price underreaction to information. Spread convergence, arising from the random evolution of fundamental values and the updating of reference prices, generates predictable equilibrium prices interpretable as possessing momentum. Empirically, a variable proxying for aggregate unrealized capital gains appears to be the key variable that generates the profitability of a momentum strategy. Controlling for this variable, past returns have no predictability for the cross-section of returns.