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The epidemiologic impact and cost-effectiveness of new tuberculosis vaccines on multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in India and China

2021; BioMed Central; Volume: 19; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1186/s12916-021-01932-7

1741-7015

Chathika K. Weerasuriya, Rebecca C. Harris, Christopher Finn McQuaid, Fiammetta Bozzani, Yunzhou Ruan, Renzhong Li, Tao Li, Kiran Rade, Raghuram Rao, Ann M. Ginsberg, Gabriela B. Gomez, Richard G. White,

Immune responses and vaccinations

Abstract Background Despite recent advances through the development pipeline, how novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines might affect rifampicin-resistant and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (RR/MDR-TB) is unknown. We investigated the epidemiologic impact, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact of hypothetical novel prophylactic prevention of disease TB vaccines on RR/MDR-TB in China and India. Methods We constructed a deterministic, compartmental, age-, drug-resistance- and treatment history-stratified dynamic transmission model of tuberculosis. We introduced novel vaccines from 2027, with post- (PSI) or both pre- and post-infection (P&PI) efficacy, conferring 10 years of protection, with 50% efficacy. We measured vaccine cost-effectiveness over 2027–2050 as USD/DALY averted-against 1-times GDP/capita, and two healthcare opportunity cost-based (HCOC), thresholds. We carried out scenario analyses. Results By 2050, the P&PI vaccine reduced RR/MDR-TB incidence rate by 73% (UI:66–76) and 72% (UI:65–77), and the PSI vaccine by 29% (UI: 27–31) and 47% (UI: 37–58) in China and India, respectively. In India, we found both USD 10 P&PI and PSI vaccines cost-effective at the 1-times GDP and upper HCOC thresholds and P&PI vaccines cost-effective at the lower HCOC threshold. In China, both vaccines were cost-effective at the 1-times GDP threshold. P&PI vaccine remained cost-effective at the lower HCOC threshold with 49% probability and PSI vaccines at the upper HCOC threshold with 21% probability. The P&PI vaccine was predicted to avert 1.0 million (UI: 0.6–1.3) and 0.8 million (UI: 0.5–1.4) second-line therapy regimens in China and India between 2027 and 2050, respectively. Conclusions Novel TB vaccination is likely to substantially reduce the future burden of RR/MDR-TB, while averting the need for second-line therapy. Vaccination may be cost-effective depending on vaccine characteristics and setting.