Disenfranchisement’s Effect on Turnout in a Weak Democracy: Haiti’s Presidential Elections, 2010-2015
2019; RELX Group (Netherlands); Linguagem: Inglês
10.2139/ssrn.3462042
ISSN1556-5068
Autores Tópico(s)Corruption and Economic Development
ResumoI examine the effects of disenfranchisement on voter behavior in a country with weak democratic institutions. In 2010, the U.S. intervened in Haiti’s presidential election, advancing Michel Martelly over Jude Celestin, which disenfranchised Celestin’s supporters. To find the causal effect of the disenfranchisement on the next election’s turnout, I use Celestin’s 2010 vote share as a measure of the intensity of disenfranchisement in a difference-in-differences analysis. In areas where more voters were disenfranchised, turnout in the next election was significantly lower. The analysis suggests that the results are not driven by mean reversion or fraudulent voting but are indeed causal.
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