Overdispersion in COVID-19 increases the effectiveness of limiting nonrepetitive contacts for transmission control
2021; National Academy of Sciences; Volume: 118; Issue: 14 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1073/pnas.2016623118
ISSN1091-6490
AutoresKim Sneppen, Bjarke Frost Nielsen, Robert J. Taylor, Lone Simonsen,
Tópico(s)Evolutionary Game Theory and Cooperation
ResumoSignificance Evidence indicates that superspreading plays a dominant role in COVID-19 transmission, so that a small fraction of infected people causes a large proportion of new COVID-19 cases. We developed an agent-based model that simulates a superspreading disease moving through a society with networks of both repeated contacts and nonrepeated, random contacts. The results indicate that superspreading is the virus’ Achilles’ heel: Reducing random contacts—such as those that occur at sporting events, restaurants, bars, and the like—can control the outbreak at population scales.
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