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The Impact of Covid-19 State Closure Orders on Consumer Spending, Employment, and Business Revenue

2021; Lippincott Williams & Wilkins; Volume: 28; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1097/phh.0000000000001376

1550-5022

Christopher Dunphy, Gabrielle F. Miller, Ketra Rice, Linda Trinh Võ, Gregory Sunshine, Russell F. McCord, Mara Howard-Williams, Fátima Coronado,

Employment and Welfare Studies

Context: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, states across the United States implemented various strategies to mitigate transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19). Objective: To examine the effect of COVID-19–related state closures on consumer spending, business revenue, and employment, while controlling for changes in COVID-19 incidence and death. Design: The analysis estimated a difference-in-difference model, utilizing temporal and geographic variation in state closure orders to analyze their impact on the economy, while controlling for COVID-19 incidence and death. Participants: State-level data on economic outcomes from the Opportunity Insights data tracker and COVID-19 cases and death data from usafacts.org. Interventions: The mitigation strategy analyzed within this study was COVID-19–related state closure orders. Data on these orders were obtained from state government Web sites containing executive or administrative orders. Main Outcome Measures: Outcomes include state-level estimates of consumer spending, business revenue, and employment levels. Results: Analyses showed that although state closures led to a decrease in consumer spending, business revenue, and employment, they accounted for only a small portion of the observed decreases in these outcomes over the first wave of COVID-19. Conclusions: The impact of COVID-19 on economic activity likely reflects a combination of factors, in addition to state closures, such as individuals' perceptions of risk related to COVID-19 incidence, which may play significant roles in impacting economic activity.