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Quantifying the challenge of reaching a 100% renewable energy power system for the United States

2021; Elsevier BV; Volume: 5; Issue: 7 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.joule.2021.05.011

2542-4785

Wesley Cole, Danny Greer, Paul Denholm, Allister Frazier, Scott Machen, Trieu Mai, Nina M. Vincent, Samuel F. Baldwin,

Electric Power System Optimization

We simulate pathways for achieving up to 100% renewable energy (RE) electric power systems for the contiguous United States. Under base conditions, the least-cost buildout has RE penetration growing up to 57% in 2050. Relative to this base scenario, average CO2 abatement costs of achieving 80%, 90%, 95%, and 100% RE are $25, $33, $40, and $61/ton, respectively, with system costs growing from $30 to $36/MWh at 95% (achieved in 2040) and $39/MWh at 100%. Incremental abatement costs from 99% to 100% RE reach $930/ton, driven primarily by the need for firm RE capacity. In addition to the base conditions, we also examined 22 alternative conditions for a buildout of up to 100%. These sensitivities capture different technology trajectories, compliance requirements, requirement timing, electrification, and transmission availability. Nonlinear marginal costs for the last few percent approaching 100% RE were found for all sensitivities, which might motivate alternative nonelectric-sector abatement opportunities.