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Multi-level Inter-regional Migrant Population Estimation Using Multi-source Spatiotemporal Big Data: A Case Study of Migrants in Hubei Province During the Outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan

2021; Springer International Publishing; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1007/978-3-030-72808-3_9

2523-7799

Jiale Qian, Zhang Liu, Yunyan Du, Nan Wang, Jiawei Yi, Yeran Sun, Ting Ma, Tao Pei, Chenghu Zhou,

Impact of Light on Environment and Health

Preventing the spread of COVID-19 is the most urgent need for society now. Before the closure of Wuhan on January 23, 2020, more than 5 million people had left Wuhan to other regions. A better understanding of the destinations of those people will assist in the decision-making and prevention of the coronavirus spread. However, few studies have focused on the dynamic estimation of multi-level spatial distribution (city, county and its urban, suburban, and rural areas) of inter-regional migrant populations. In this study, by using multi-source spatiotemporal big data, including Tencent location request data (TLR), Baidu migration data, and land cover data, we proposed a dynamic estimation model of multi-level spatial distribution of inter-regional migrant population, and further characterized the spatial distribution of the population migrating from Wuhan to other regions of Hubei Province. The results showed that (1) During the Spring Festival, the average ratio between the number of population increase in the rural areas and the total population change was 124.7% in the prefecture-level cities in Hubei Province. At least 51.3% of the population moving from Wuhan to prefecture-level cities has flowed into rural areas; (2) the spatial distribution of migrants among cities and counties in Hubei Province exhibits a three-ring structure. The first ring is the core area of disease, includes Wuhan and its surrounding areas, which are mainly characterized by population outflows. The second ring is the primary focus area, includes Huanggang, Huangshi, Xiantao, Tianmen, Qianjiang, Suizhou, Xiangyang, and parts of Xiaogan, Jingzhou, Jingmen, Xianning, where the total population and the population in rural areas increased significantly during the Spring Festival. The thrd ring is the secondary focus area, includes Yichang, Enshi, Shennongjia, and parts of Jingzhou and Jingmen, which are located in the western part of Hubei Province and are mainly characterized by a small inflow of population.