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Exploring Linkages Between Indigenous Knowledge Systems and Conventional Flood Forecasting in the Aftermath of Tropical Cyclone Idai in Chikwawa, Malawi

2021; Springer International Publishing; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1007/978-3-030-74262-1_14

2523-3092

Cosmo Ngongondo, Miriam Dalitso Kalanda-Joshua, Maurice Monjerezi, Felistus Chipungu, Raymond Abudu Kasei, Charles Malidadi,

Climate variability and models

This study explores links between IKS and climate science for flood forecasting in a flood-prone area, affected by Tropical Cyclone Idai, in Malawi. Rural communities' perceptions of flood trends and risks were collected using household interviews (n = 60), key informant interviews (n = 10) and mixed gender focus group discussions in Chikwawa District. Flood frequency analysis was performed using rainfall and discharge data from nearby weather stations and Mwanza and Shire Rivers. There is a decline in localised rainfall, but increase in flooding from rainfall in upstream catchment. Both communities highlighted reliable IKS (flora, fauna and atmospheric observations) used before the onset of and during the rainfall events for flooding forecasts. However, most of the IK indicators are threatened by environmental degradation and may not be suited to forecasts of patterns or intensity of rainfall at large spatial and temporal scales, such as floods from rainfall in upstream catchment. Therefore, IK indicators may not provide sufficient foreknowledge to respond to climate events such as cyclones. Scientific climate knowledge may provide forecasts at both small and large spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, integration of contextualised IK and scientific climate knowledge can produce robust flood forecasts in the poorly resourced settings.