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Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning

2021; Public Library of Science; Volume: 15; Issue: 7 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824

1935-2735

Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Joshua C. P. Osborne, Thomas R. Unnasch, Marı́a-Gloria Basáñez, Katherine Gass, Kira Barbre, Elex Hill, Kimberly B. Johnson, Katie M. Donkers, Shreya Shirude, Chris A. Schmidt, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji Adetokunboh, Mohsen Afarideh, Ehsan Ahmadpour, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Temesgen Yihunie Akalu, Ziyad Al‐Aly, Fahad Mashhour Alanezi, Turki Alanzi, Vahid Alipour, Cătălina Liliana Andrei, Fereshteh Ansari, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Davood Anvari, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Jalal Arabloo, Benjamin F. Arnold, Marcel Ausloos, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Atif Amin Baig, Maciej Banach, Aleksandra Barać, Till Bärnighausen, Mohsen Bayati, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Sadia Bibi, Ali Bijani, Somayeh Bohlouli, Mahdi Bohluli, Oliver J. Brady, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Zahid A Butt, Félix Carvalho, Souranshu Chatterjee, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Natalie Maria Cormier, Saad M A Dahlawi, Giovanni Damiani, Farah Daoud, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Ahmad Daryani, Kebede Deribe, Samath D Dharmaratne, Daniel Díaz, Hoa Do, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Maha El Tantawi, Demelash Abewa Elemineh, Anwar Faraj, Majid Fasihi Harandi, Yousef Fatahi, Valery L. Feigin, Eduarda Fernandes, Nataliya A Foigt, Masoud Foroutan, Richard C. Franklin, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Davide Guido, Yuming Guo, Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian, Kanaan Hamagharib Abdullah, Samer Hamidi, Claudiu Herţeliu, Hagos Degefa Hidru, Tarig B. Higazi, Naznin Hossain, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mowafa Househ, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Milena Ilić, Irena Ilić, Usman Iqbal, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Ravi Prakash Jha, Farahnaz Joukar, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Zubair Kabir, Leila R Kalankesh, Rohollah Kalhor, Behzad Karami Matin, Salah Eddin Karimi, Amir Kasaeian, Taras Kavetskyy, Gbenga A Kayode, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Abraham Getachew Kelbore, Maryam Keramati, Rovshan Khalilov, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Md Nuruzzaman Khan, Khaled Khatab, Mona M Khater, Neda Kianipour, Kelemu Tilahun Kibret, Yun Jin Kim, Soewarta Kosen, Kris J Krohn, Dian Kusuma, Carlo La Vecchia, Van Charles Lansingh, Paul H. Lee, Kate E LeGrand, Shanshan Li, Joshua Longbottom, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Afshin Maleki, Abdullah Al Mamun, Ali Manafi, Navid Manafi, Mohammad Alì Mansournia, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo, Mohsen Mazidi, Colm McAlinden, Birhanu Geta Meharie, Walter Mendoza, Endalkachew Worku Mengesha, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Seid Tiku Mereta, Tomislav Meštrović, Ted R. Miller, Mohammad Reza Miri, Masoud Moghadaszadeh, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Reza Mohammadpourhodki, Shafiu Mohammed, Salahuddin Mohammed, Masoud Moradi, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Paula Moraga, Jonathan F Mosser, Mehdi Naderi, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Gurudatta Naik, Ionuţ Negoi, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Rajan Nikbakhsh, Bogdan Oancea, Tinuke O Olagunju, Andrew T Olagunju, Ahmed Omar Bali, Obinna Onwujekwe, Adrian Pană, Hadi Pourjafar, Fakher Rahim, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Priya Rathi, Salman Rawaf, David Laith Rawaf, Reza Rawassizadeh, Serge Resnikoff, Melese Abate Reta, Aziz Rezapour, Enrico Rubagotti, Salvatore Rubino, Ehsan Sadeghi, Abedin Saghafipour, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Abdallah M Samy, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Monika Sawhney, Megan F. Schipp, Amira Shaheen, Masood Ali Shaikh, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Kiomars Sharafi, Aziz Sheikh, B. Suresh Kumar Shetty, Jae Il Shin, K. M. Shivakumar, Biagio Simonetti, Jasvinder A. Singh, Eirini Skiadaresi, Amin Soheili, Shahin Soltani, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Takahiro Tabuchi, Leili Tapak, Robert L. Thompson, A. J. Thomson, Eugenio Traini, Bach Xuan Tran, Irfan Ullah, Saif Ullah, Chigozie Jesse Uneke, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Olalekan A. Uthman, Natalie V. S. Vinkeles Melchers, Francesco Saverio Violante, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Tomohide Yamada, Sanni Yaya, Vahid Yazdi‐Feyzabadi, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Hebat-Allah Salah A. Yousof, Chuanhua Yu, Yong Yu, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Leila Zaki, Sojib Bin Zaman, Maryam Zamanian, Zhi‐Jiang Zhang, Yunquan Zhang, Arash Ziapour, Simon I Hay, David M. Pigott,

Parasite Biology and Host Interactions

Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.