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Lunar eclipses, analyst sentiment, and earnings forecasts: Evidence from China

2021; Elsevier BV; Volume: 76; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.iref.2021.08.009

1873-8036

Xin Chen,

Market Dynamics and Volatility

This paper examines whether analysts affected by lunar eclipses issue more pessimistic earnings forecasts. After controlling for the characteristics of analysts, climates, and lunar phases, we find that analyst forecasts made after lunar eclipses are more pessimistic than consensus forecasts. This effect is more pronounced when a lunar eclipse is stronger. Further, we find that nighttime cloud coverage reduces analyst pessimism, while network attention, analyst superstition, natural disasters, and pollution increases pessimism after eclipses. Our paper provides new evidence that lunar eclipse-induced mood leads to pessimistic forecasts made by sell-side analysts.