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A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave

2021; Nature Portfolio; Volume: 12; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1038/s41467-021-25207-0

2041-1723

Johannes Bracher, Daniel Wolffram, Jannik Deuschel, Konstantin Görgen, Jakob Ketterer, Alexander Ullrich, Sam Abbott, Maria Vittoria Barbarossa, Dimitris Bertsimas, Sangeeta Bhatia, Marcin Bodych, Nikos I Bosse, Jan Pablo Burgard, Lauren Castro, Geoffrey Fairchild, Jan Fuhrmann, Sebastian Funk, Krzysztof Gogolewski, Quanquan Gu, Stefan Heyder, Thomas Hotz, Yuri Kheifetz, Holger Kirsten, Tyll Krueger, Ekaterina Krymova, Michael Lingzhi Li, Jan H. Meinke, Isaac Michaud, Karol Niedzielewski, Tomasz Ożański, Franciszek Rakowski, Markus Scholz, Soni Saksham, Ajitesh Srivastava, Jakub Zieliński, Difan Zou, Tilmann Gneiting, Melanie Schienle, Michael Lingzhi Li, Dimitris Bertsimas, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Soni Saksham, Sam Abbott, Nikos I Bosse, Sebastian Funk, Maria Vittoria Barbarossa, Jan Fuhrmann, Jan H. Meinke, Johannes Bracher, Jannik Deuschel, Tilmann Gneiting, Konstantin Görgen, Jakob Ketterer, Melanie Schienle, Alexander Ullrich, Daniel Wolffram, Łukasz Górski, Magdalena Gruziel-Słomka, Artur Kaczorek, Antoni Moszyński, Karol Niedzielewski, Jedrzej Nowosielski, Maciej Radwan, Franciszek Rakowski, Marcin Semeniuk, Jakub Zieliński, Rafał Bartczuk, Jan Kisielewski, Sangeeta Bhatia, Przemysław Biecek, Viktor Bezborodov, Marcin Bodych, Tyll Krueger, Jan Pablo Burgard, Stefan Heyder, Thomas Hotz, Dave Osthus, Isaac Michaud, Lauren Castro, Geoffrey Fairchild, Yuri Kheifetz, Holger Kirsten, Markus Scholz, Anna Gambin, Krzysztof Gogolewski, Błażej Miasojedow, Ewa Szczurek, Daniel Rabczenko, Magdalena Rosińska, Marek A. Bawiec, Marcin Bodych, Tomasz Ożański, Barbara Pabjan, Ewaryst Rafajłlowicz, Ewa Skubalska-Rafajłowicz, Wojciech Rafajłowicz, Agata Migalska, Ewa Szczurek, Antoine Flahault, Elisa Manetti, Christine Choirat, Benjamı́n Béjar, Ekaterina Krymova, Gavin Lee, Guillaume Obozinski, Tao Sun, Dorina Thanou, Quanquan Gu, Pan Xu, Jinghui Chen, Lingxiao Wang, Difan Zou, Weitong Zhang, Ajitesh Srivastava, Viktor K. Prasanna, Frost Tianjian Xu,

Data-Driven Disease Surveillance

Abstract Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October–19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.