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A systematic global stocktake of evidence on human adaptation to climate change

2021; Nature Portfolio; Volume: 11; Issue: 11 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1038/s41558-021-01170-y

1758-6798

Lea Berrang‐Ford, A.R. Siders, Alexandra Lesnikowski, A. Paige Fischer, Max Callaghan, Neal Haddaway, Katharine J. Mach, Malcolm Araos, Mohammad Aminur Rahman Shah, Mia Wannewitz, Deepal Doshi, Timo Leiter, Custódio Matavel, Justice Issah Musah-Surugu, Gabrielle Wong‐Parodi, Philip Antwi‐Agyei, Idowu Ajibade, Neha Chauhan, William Kakenmaster, Caitlin Grady, Vasiliki Ι. Chalastani, Kripa Jagannathan, Eranga K. Galappaththi, Asha Sitati, Giulia Scarpa, Edmond Totin, Katy Davis, Nikita Charles Hamilton, Christine Kirchhoff, Praveen Kumar, Brian Pentz, Nicholas P. Simpson, Emily Theokritoff, Delphine Deryng, Diana Reckien, Carol Zavaleta-Cortijo, Nícola Ulibarrí, Alcade C. Segnon, Vhalinavho Khavhagali, Yuanyuan Shang, Luckson Zvobgo, Zinta Zommers, Jiren Xu, Portia Adade Williams, Iván Villaverde Canosa, Nicole van Maanen, Bianca van Bavel, Maarten van Aalst, Lynée L. Turek‐Hankins, Hasti Trivedi, Christopher H. Trisos, Adelle Thomas, Shinny Thakur, Sienna Templeman, Lindsay C. Stringer, Garry Sotnik, Kathryn Dana Sjostrom, Chandni Singh, Mariella Siña, Roopam Shukla, Jordi Sardans, Eunice A. Salubi, Lolita Shaila Safaee Chalkasra, Raquel Ruiz‐Díaz, C. Richards, Pratik Pokharel, Jan Petzold, Josep Peñuelas, Julia Pelaez Avila, Julia B. Pazmino Murillo, Souha Ouni, Jennifer Niemann, Miriam Nielsen, Mark New, Patricia Nayna Schwerdtle, Gabriela Nagle Alverio, C. Mullin, Joshua Mullenite, Anuszka Mosurska, Michael D. Morecroft, Jan C. Minx, Gina Maskell, Abraham Marshall Nunbogu, Alexandre Magnan, Shuaib Lwasa, Megan Lukas-Sithole, Tabea Lissner, Oliver Lilford, Steven Koller, Matthew Jurjonas, Elphin Tom Joe, Lam Thi Mai Huynh, Avery P. Hill, Rebecca R. Hernandez, Greeshma Hegde, Tom Hawxwell, Sherilee L. Harper, Alexandra Harden, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Elisabeth A. Gilmore, Leah Gichuki, Alyssa Gatt, Matthias Garschagen, James D. Ford, Andrew Forbes, Aidan D. Farrell, Carolyn A. F. Enquist, Susan J. Elliott, Emily Duncan, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Shaugn Coggins, Tara Chen, Donovan Campbell, Katherine E. Browne, Kathryn Bowen, Robbert Biesbroek, Indra D. Bhatt, Rachel Bezner Kerr, Stephanie Barr, Emily Baker, Stéphanie Austin, Ingrid Arotoma‐Rojas, Christa M. Anderson, Warda Ajaz, Tanvi Agrawal, Thelma Zulfawu Abu,

Sustainability and Climate Change Governance

Assessing global progress on human adaptation to climate change is an urgent priority. Although the literature on adaptation to climate change is rapidly expanding, little is known about the actual extent of implementation. We systematically screened >48,000 articles using machine learning methods and a global network of 126 researchers. Our synthesis of the resulting 1,682 articles presents a systematic and comprehensive global stocktake of implemented human adaptation to climate change. Documented adaptations were largely fragmented, local and incremental, with limited evidence of transformational adaptation and negligible evidence of risk reduction outcomes. We identify eight priorities for global adaptation research: assess the effectiveness of adaptation responses, enhance the understanding of limits to adaptation, enable individuals and civil society to adapt, include missing places, scholars and scholarship, understand private sector responses, improve methods for synthesizing different forms of evidence, assess the adaptation at different temperature thresholds, and improve the inclusion of timescale and the dynamics of responses. Determining progress in adaptation to climate change is challenging, yet critical as climate change impacts increase. A stocktake of the scientific literature on implemented adaptation now shows that adaptation is mostly fragmented and incremental, with evidence lacking for its impact on reducing risk.