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Bounding the levels of transmissibility & immune evasion of the Omicron variant in South Africa

2021; Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1101/2021.12.19.21268038

Carl A. B. Pearson, Sheetal Silal, Michael Li, Jonathan Dushoff, Benjamin M. Bolker, Sam Abbott, Cari van Schalkwyk, Nicholas G. Davies, Rosanna C. Barnard, W. John Edmunds, Jeremy Bingham, Gesine Meyer‐Rath, Lise Jamieson, Allison Glass, Nicole Wolter, Nevashan Govender, Wendy Stevens, Lesley Scott, Koleka Mlisana, Harry Moultrie, Juliet R. C. Pulliam,

Bacillus and Francisella bacterial research

Abstract A new SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern, Omicron (B.1.1.529), has been identified based on genomic sequencing and epidemiological data in South Africa. Presumptive Omicron cases in South Africa have grown extremely rapidly, despite high prior exposure and moderate vaccination coverage. The available evidence suggests that Omicron spread is at least in part due to evasion of this immune protection, though Omicron may also exhibit higher intrinsic transmissibility. Using detailed laboratory and epidemiological data from South Africa, we estimate the constraints on these two characteristics of the new variant and their relationship. Our estimates and associated uncertainties provide essential information to inform projection and scenario modeling analyses, which are crucial planning tools for governments around the world. One Sentence Summary We report a region of plausibility for the relative transmissibility and immune escape characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant estimated by integrating laboratory and epidemiological data from South Africa.