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THE BIOCLIMATE PRESENT AND FUTURE IN THE STATE OF SÃO PAULO/BRAZIL: SPACE-TIME ANALYSIS OF HUMAN THERMAL COMFORT

2021; Elsevier BV; Volume: 78; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.scs.2021.103611

2210-6715

João Paulo Assis Gobo, Cássio Arthur Wollmann, Maria Cristina Celuppi, Emerson Galvani, Marlon Resende Faria, David Mendes, José Francisco de Oliveira‐Júnior, Tatiana dos Santos Malheiros, Eduardo Samuel Riffel, Fábio Luiz Teixeira Gonçalves,

Building Energy and Comfort Optimization

The study evaluated the spatial distribution of human thermal comfort based on a new approach using input data for comfort indices through observed data (2008 to 2016) and for different future climate scenarios in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The indices were calculated and spatialized via Kriging for the entire state, based on daily meteorological data from the National Institute of Meteorology's Automatic Weather Stations in the form of average, maximum and minimum. Future data with monthly outputs of the same meteorological variables were projected for two IPCC scenarios (RCP's 2.6 and 8.5). Based on the projections, the 4 indices were recalculated and spatialized for the near (2050-2080) and distant (2070-2100) future. The results obtained showed the definition of the regions of greater and lesser discomfort due to cold and heat in the state, for the present and future bioclimatic conditions. The new approach was satisfactory and provided a realistic and accurate spatial analysis of the extremes of discomfort due to cold and heat in the study region, which is not possible based on the observation of mean values commonly used in the literature. The contributions of this study promote an alert for the development of public policies for prevention and bioclimatic adaptation, as well as for electricity demand, considering future climate changes and the increased thermal discomfort at local and regional levels.