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A strong mitigation scenario maintains climate neutrality of northern peatlands

2022; Elsevier BV; Volume: 5; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.008

2590-3330

Chunjing Qiu, Philippe Ciais, Dan Zhu, Bertrand Guenet, Jinfeng Chang, Nitin Chaudhary, Thomas Kleinen, Xinyu Li, Jurek Müller, Yi Xi, Wenxin Zhang, Ashley P. Ballantyne, Simon Brewer, Victor Brovkin, Dan J. Charman, A. F. Gustafson, Angela Gallego‐Sala, Thomas Gasser, Joseph Holden, Fortunat Joos, Min Jung Kwon, Ronny Lauerwald, Paul Miller, Shushi Peng, Susan Page, Benjamin Smith, Benjamin D. Stocker, A. Britta K. Sannel, Élodie Salmon, Guy Schurgers, Narasinha Shurpali, David Wårlind, Sebastian Westermann,

Coastal wetland ecosystem dynamics

Northern peatlands store 300–600 Pg C, of which approximately half are underlain by permafrost. Climate warming and, in some regions, soil drying from enhanced evaporation are progressively threatening this large carbon stock. Here, we assess future CO2 and CH4 fluxes from northern peatlands using five land surface models that explicitly include representation of peatland processes. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, northern peatlands are projected to remain a net sink of CO2 and climate neutral for the next three centuries. A shift to a net CO2 source and a substantial increase in CH4 emissions are projected under RCP8.5, which could exacerbate global warming by 0.21°C (range, 0.09–0.49°C) by the year 2300. The true warming impact of peatlands might be higher owing to processes not simulated by the models and direct anthropogenic disturbance. Our study highlights the importance of understanding how future warming might trigger high carbon losses from northern peatlands.