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Global Outlook: Pandemic, Recession: The Global Economy in Crisis

2020; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1596/978-1-4648-1553-9_ch1

1564-7021

Agricultural risk and resilience

No AccessJul 2020Global Outlook: Pandemic, Recession: The Global Economy in CrisisAuthors/Editors: World BankWorld Bankhttps://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1553-9_ch1AboutView ChaptersFull TextPDF (25.3 MB) ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack Citations ShareFacebookTwitterLinked In Abstract: Asserts that the COVID-19 pandemic has delivered a global economic shock of enormous magnitude, leading to steep recessions. The baseline forecast envisions a 5.2 percent contraction in global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020—the deepest global recession in eight decades, despite unprecedented policy support. Per capita incomes in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) should shrink this year, tipping many millions back into poverty. The global recession will prove deeper if bringing the pandemic under control takes longer than expected, or if financial stress triggers cascading defaults. The pandemic highlights the urgent need for health and economic policy action—including global cooperation—to cushion its consequences, protect vulnerable populations, and improve countries’ capacity to prevent and cope with similar future events. Since EMDEs remain particularly vulnerable, they must strengthen their public health care systems to address the challenges posed by informality and limited safety nets and undertake reforms that enable strong and sustainable growth. ReferencesAbraham, F and S Schmukler. 2017. “Addressing the SME Finance Problem.” Research & Policy Briefs 9, World Bank, Washington, DC. Google ScholarAghion, P, U Akcigit, and P Howitt. 2014. Handbook of Economic Growth, Volume 2. Amsterdam: Elsevier. Google ScholarAhir, H, N Bloom, and D Furceri. 2018. “The World Uncertainty Index.” Mimeo, October 29. 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