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Optimized Agricultural Scenarios of Proposed Kalabagh Dam Under Conjunctive Operation of Tarbela and Kalabagh Reservoirs Using Agro-Economic Model

2022; Springer International Publishing; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1007/978-3-030-72543-3_107

2522-8722

Muhammad Sanaullah, Abdur Rehman, Muhammad Kamran, Ejaz Ahmed Abbasi, Muhammad Qasim Mahmood, Muhammad Imran,

Irrigation Practices and Water Management

Kalabagh Dam (KD) is one of the proposed dams on the river Indus in Pakistan. The modeling approach was used for the estimation of agricultural benefits in prospect of conjunctive use of Tarbela and Kalabagh reservoirs. The agriculture parameters have been projected from 2001–2016 for growth rates of resources. Results of an agro-economic model (Indus Basin Model Revised) has established that canal diversions increased up to 5 MAF (42% annually) for the Upper Indus River Canals (UIRC), including the Chashma Right Bank Canal (CRBC), while for Lower Indus River Canals (LIRC), 7 MAF (58%) was observed. The future area under various crops has been predicted with an increase in annual cropping intensity to 19%, resulting in an additional demand for water for watercourse head by 27%. About 17% predicted rise in canal supplies will be helpful in fulfilling the water shortages through increasing groundwater pumpage by 23%. Model analysis indicates that annual river flows below Kotri will decline from 37.336 to 26.88 MAF due to utilization of the Indus river water by the upstream Kalabagh canal commands. The comparison of value added per household yielded a rise of 13% for Punjab, 14% for Sindh, and about 200% for the Baluchistan province.