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The costs and benefits of primary prevention of zoonotic pandemics

2022; American Association for the Advancement of Science; Volume: 8; Issue: 5 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1126/sciadv.abl4183

2375-2548

Aaron Bernstein, Amy W. Ando, Ted Temzelides, Mariana M. Vale, Binbin V. Li, Hongying Li, Jonah Busch, Colin A. Chapman, Margaret F. Kinnaird, Katarzyna Nowak, Márcia C. Castro, Carlos Zambrana‐Torrelio, Jorge Ahumada, Lingyun Xiao, Patrick R. Roehrdanz, Les Kaufman, Lee Hannah, Peter Daszak, Stuart L. Pimm, Andrew P. Dobson,

Viral Infections and Vectors

The lives lost and economic costs of viral zoonotic pandemics have steadily increased over the past century. Prominent policymakers have promoted plans that argue the best ways to address future pandemic catastrophes should entail, “detecting and containing emerging zoonotic threats.” In other words, we should take actions only after humans get sick. We sharply disagree. Humans have extensive contact with wildlife known to harbor vast numbers of viruses, many of which have not yet spilled into humans. We compute the annualized damages from emerging viral zoonoses. We explore three practical actions to minimize the impact of future pandemics: better surveillance of pathogen spillover and development of global databases of virus genomics and serology, better management of wildlife trade, and substantial reduction of deforestation. We find that these primary pandemic prevention actions cost less than 1/20th the value of lives lost each year to emerging viral zoonoses and have substantial cobenefits.