An Integrated Approach for Evaluating Climate Change Risks: A Case Study in Suriname
2022; Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute; Volume: 14; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês
10.3390/su14031463
ISSN2071-1050
AutoresHelena Antich-Homar, Katharina Hess, Kepa Solaun, Gerard Alleng, Adrián Flores Aguilar,
Tópico(s)Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
ResumoThis paper combines long-term state-of-the-art climate projections and indices to provide detailed insights into the future climate of Suriname to facilitate comprehensive information of areas and sectors at high climate risk for political decision-making. The study analyses Suriname’s historical climate (1990–2014) and provides climate projections for three time horizons (2020–2044, 2045–2069, 2070–2094) and two emissions scenarios (intermediate/SSP2-4.5 and severe/SSP5-8.5). Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) modeling is used to analyze changes in sea level, temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and winds. In addition, risk impact chains were produced for the country’s four most important socio-economic sectors: agriculture and fisheries, forestry, water, and infrastructure. Results show the temperature is expected to increase for all regions and timeframes, reaching warming up to 6 °C in the southern region in the long-term future (2070–2094). Projections point towards a reduction in precipitation in the southwest and coastal regions and a rise in mean sea level. Regarding risk, Paramaribo and Wanica face the highest climate risk. Coronie and Nickerie face the least climate risk. These regions remain the most and least vulnerable in both the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, but overall values of their risk indices increase substantially over time.
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