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Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020: a modelling study

2022; Elsevier BV; Volume: 7; Issue: 5 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/s2468-1253(21)00472-6

2468-1253

Sarah Blach, Norah A. Terrault, Frank Tacke, Ivane Gamkrelidze, Antonio Craxı̀, Junko Tanaka, Imam Waked, Gregory J. Dore, Zaigham Abbas, Ayat R. Abdallah, Maheeba Abdulla, Alessio Aghemo, Inka Aho, Ulus Salih Akarca, Abduljaleel Alalwan, Marianne Alanko Blomé, Said A. Al‐Busafi, Soo Aleman, Abdullah Alghamdi, Waleed K. Al‐Hamoudi, Abdulrahman Aljumah, Khalid Al‐Naamani, Yousif M Al Serkal, Ibrahim Altraif, Anil C. Anand, Motswedi Anderson, Monique Andersson, Kostas Athanasakis, Oidov Baatarkhuu, Shokhista Bakieva, Ziv Ben‐Ari, Fernando Bessone, Mia J. Biondi, Abdul Rahman Bizri, Carlos Eduardo Brandão‐Mello, Krestina Brigida, Kimberly Brown, Robert S. Brown, Philip Bruggmann, Maurizia Rossana Brunetto, Dana Busschots, Marı́a Buti, Maia Butsashvili, Joaquín Cabezas, Chungman Chae, Viktorija Chaloska Ivanova, Henry Lik‐Yuen Chan, Hugo Cheinquer, Kent Jason Cheng, Myeong-Eun Cheon, Cheng‐Hung Chien, Rong‐Nan Chien, Gourdas Choudhuri, Peer Brehm Christensen, Wan‐Long Chuang, Vladimir Chulanov, Laura Cisneros, B. Coco, Fernando A Contreras, Markus Cornberg, Matthew Cramp, Javier Crespo, Fuqiang Cui, Chris Cunningham, Lucy Dagher Abou, Olav Dalgård, Doan Y Dao, Victor de Lédinghen, Moutaz Derbala, Keshab Deuba, Karan Dhindsa, Samsuridjal Djauzi, Sylvia Dražilová, Ann‐Sofi Duberg, Mohammed Elbadri, Manal H. El‐Sayed, Gamal Esmat, Chris Estes, Sameera Ezzat, Martti Färkkilâ, Laurent Ferradini, Maria Lúcia Gomes Ferraz, Paulo Roberto Abrão Ferreira, Tajana Filipec Kanižaj, Robert Flisiak, Soňa Fraňková, James Fung, Amiran Gamkrelidze, Edward Gane, Virginia Garcia, Javier García‐Samaniego, Manik Gemilyan, Jordan Genov, Liliana Gheorghe, Pierre M. Gholam, Adrian Goldis, Magnús Gottfreðsson, Richard T. Gray, Jason Grebely, Michael Gschwantler, Behzad Hajarizadeh, Saeed Hamid, Waseem Hamoudi, Angelos Hatzakis, Margaret Hellard, Sayed Himatt, Harald Hofer, Irena Hrstić, Béla Hunyady, Petr Husa, Azra Husić-Selimović, Wasim Jafri, Martin Janíčko, Naveed Z. Janjua, Peter Jarčuška, Jerzy Jaroszewicz, Anna Jerkeman, Agita Jēruma, Jidong Jia, Jón G. Jónasson, Martin Kåberg, Kelly Kaita, Kulpash Kaliaskarova, Jia‐Horng Kao, Omor T. Kasymov, Angela Kelly‐Hanku, Faryal Khamis, Jawad Khamis, Aamir Khan, Lekey Khandu, Ibtissam Khoudri, Knut Boe Kielland, Do Young Kim, Nicolas Kodjoh, Loreta A. Kondili, Mel Krajden, Henrik Krarup, Pavol Kristián, Jisoo A. Kwon, Martin Lagging, Wim Laleman, Wai Cheung Lao, Daniel Lavanchy, Pablo Lázaro, Jeffrey V. Lazarus, Alice U Lee, Mei–Hsuan Lee, Michael K. K. Li, Valentina Liakina, Young‐Suk Lim, Arthur Löve, Boris Lukšić, Shepherd Mufudzi Machekera, Abraham O. Malu, Rui Tato Marinho, Mojca Matičič, Hailemichael Desalegn Mekonnen, Maria Cássia Mendes-Corrêa, Nahúm Méndez‐Sánchez, Shahin Merat, Berhane Redae Meshesha, Håvard Midgard, Michael Mills, Rosmawati Mohamed, Ellen Mooneyhan, Christophe Moreno, David Handojo Muljono, Beat Müllhaupt, Erkin Musabaev, Gaëtan Muyldermans, Yvonne Ayerki Nartey, Marcelo Contardo Moscoso Naveira, Francesco Negro, Alexander Nersesov, Richard Njouom, R. Ntagirabiri, Zuridin Nurmatov, Solomon Obekpa, Stephen Oguche, Sigurður Ólafsson, Janus P. Ong, Ohene Opare‐Sem, Mauricio Orrego, Anne Øvrehus, Calvin Q. Pan, George Papatheodoridis, Markus Peck‐Radosavljevic, Mário G. Pessôa, Richard Odame Phillips, Nikolay Pimenov, Dijana Plaseska‐Karanfilska, Nishi Prabdial‐Sing, P. Puri, Huma Qureshi, Aninda Rahman, Alnoor Ramji, Devin Razavi‐Shearer, Kathryn Razavi‐Shearer, Ezequiel Ridruejo, Cielo Y Ríos-Hincapié, S M Shahriar Rizvi, Geert Robaeys, Lewis R. Roberts, Stuart K. Roberts, Stephen Ryder, Shakhlo Sadirova, Umar Saeed, Rifaat Safadi, Olga Sagalova, Sanaa Said, Riina Salupere, Faisal M. Sanai, J.F. Sánchez-Ávila, Vivek A. Saraswat, Christoph Sarrazin, Gulya Sarybayeva, Carole Seguin‐Devaux, Ala I. Sharara, Mahdi Sheikh, Abate Bane Shewaye, William Sievert, Kaarlo Simojoki, Marieta Simonova, Mark Sonderup, C. Wendy Spearman, Jan Šperl, Rudolf Stauber, Catherine Stedman, Tung‐Hung Su, Anita Suleiman, Vana Sypsa, Natalia Tamayo Antabak, Soek-Siam Tan, Tammo Lambert Tergast, Prem Harichander Thurairajah, Ieva Tolmane, Krzysztof Tomasiewicz, Maia Tsereteli, Benjamin Uzochukwu, David van de Vijver, Daniela K van Santen, Hans Van Vlierberghe, Berend Van Welzen, Thomas Vanwolleghem, Patricia Vélez-Möller, Federico Villamil, Adriana Vince, Yasir Waheed, Nina Weis, Vincent Wai‐Sun Wong, César Yaghi, Kakharman Yesmembetov, Ayman Yosry, Man‐Fung Yuen, Evy Yunihastuti, Stefan Zeuzem, Eli Zuckerman, Homie Razavi,

Hepatitis B Virus Studies

Summary Background Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. Methods This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age ≥0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories. Findings Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0·7% (95% UI 0·7–0·9), corresponding to 56·8 million (95% UI 55·2–67·8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6·8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63·6 million (61·8–75·8) infections (0·9% [0·8–1·0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12·9 million (12·5–15·4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641 000 (623 000–765 000) patients initiated treatment. Interpretation At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56·8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination. Funding John C Martin Foundation, Gilead Sciences, AbbVie, ZeShan Foundation, and The Hepatitis Fund.