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A novel quantitative and qualitative model for forecasting the navigational risks of Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships

2022; Elsevier BV; Volume: 248; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.110852

1873-5258

Chien‐Chang Chou, Chia‐Nan Wang, Hsien‐Pin Hsu,

Maritime Transport Emissions and Efficiency

Navigators, shipping companies, port authorities and government maritime bureaus are interested in understanding the navigational risks of Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) in order to decide how to develop port facilities and make navigational safety regulations for MASS in the future. Unfortunately, so far there are no historical data of actual marine accidents of MASS. Most of the autonomous ship researches focused on small autonomous boats in the past, few discussed the navigational risks of large MASS. Therefore, this study proposes a novel model for forecasting objectively and quantitatively the navigational risks of MASS. Firstly, this study constructs an analytical hierarchy frame for forecasting the navigational risk of MASS. Secondly, a novel computing method is developed to integrate the subjective navigator judgment of MASS and objective actual marine accident data of crewed merchant vessels, and then to measure the navigational risk of MASS. The results showed that the navigational risk of mechanical malfunction accident is the largest when oceangoing at sea; the navigational risk of collision is the largest when entering/exiting a port. The findings could be given for a reference while making policies in the future.