Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States
National Academy of Sciences;
Autores
Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Aaron Gerding, Tilmann Gneiting, Katie House, Yuxin Huang, Jimeng Sun, Abdul Hannan Kanji, Ayush Khandelwal, Khoa Le, Anja Mühlemann, Jarad Niemi, Apurv Shah, Ariane Stark, Yijin Wang, Nutcha Wattanachit, Martha Zorn, Youyang Gu, Sansiddh Jain, Nayana Bannur, Ayush Deva, Mihir Kulkarni, Srujana Merugu, Alpan Raval, Siddhant Shingi, Avtansh Tiwari, Jerome White, Neil F. Abernethy, Spencer Woody, Maytal Dahan, Spencer J. Fox, Kelly Gaither, Michael Lachmann, Lauren Ancel Meyers, James G. Scott, Mauricio Tec, Ajitesh Srivastava, Glover George, Jeffrey C. Cegan, Ian Dettwiller, William P. England, Matthew W. Farthing, Robert H. Hunter, Brandon J. Lafferty, Igor Linkov, Michael L. Mayo, Matthew Parno, Michael A. Rowland, Benjamin D. Trump, Yanli Zhang‐James, Samuel Chen, Stephen V. Faraone, Jonathan Hess, Christopher P. Morley, Asif Salekin, Dongliang Wang, Sabrina Corsetti, T. M. Baer, Marisa C. Eisenberg, Karl Falb, Yitao Huang, Emily T. Martin, Ella McCauley, Robert L. Myers, Tom Schwarz, Daniel Sheldon, Graham Gibson, Rose Yu, Liyao Gao, Yi-An Ma, Dongxia Wu, Xifeng Yan, Xiaoyong Jin, Yu-Xiang Wang, YangQuan Chen, Lihong Guo, Yanting Zhao, Quanquan Gu, Jinghui Chen, Lingxiao Wang, Pan Xu, Weitong Zhang, Difan Zou, Hannah Biegel, J. Lega, Steve McConnell, VP Nagraj, Stephanie Guertin, Christopher Hulme-Lowe, Stephen Turner, Yunfeng Shi, Xuegang Ban, Robert Walraven, Qi‐Jun Hong, Stanley Kong, Axel van de Walle, James Turtle, M. Ben-Nun, Steven Riley, Pete Riley, Ugur Koyluoglu, David DesRoches, Pedro Forli, Bruce H. Hamory, Christina Kyriakides, Helen Leis, John Milliken, Michael Moloney, James Morgan, Ninad Nirgudkar, Gokce Ozcan, Noah Piwonka, Matt Ravi, Chris Schrader, Elizabeth A. Shakhnovich, Daniel M. Siegel, Ryan Spatz, Chris Stiefeling, Barrie Wilkinson, Alexander Wong, Sean Cavany, Guido España, Sean M. Moore, Rachel J. Oidtman, T. Alex Perkins, David Kraus, Andrea Kraus, Zhifeng Gao, Jiang Bian, Wei Cao, Juan Lavista Ferres, Chaozhuo Li, Tie‐Yan Liu, Xing Xie, Shun Zhang, Shun Zheng, Alessandro Vespignani, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Xinyue Xiong, Andrew Zheng, Jackie Baek, Vivek F. Farias, Andreea Georgescu, Retsef Levi, Deeksha Sinha, Joshua Wilde, Georgia Perakis, Mohammed Amine Bennouna, David Nze Ndong, Divya Singhvi, Ιoannis Spantidakis, Leann Thayaparan, Asterios Tsiourvas, Arnab Sarker, Ali Jadbabaie, Devavrat Shah, Nicolás Della Penna, Leo Anthony Celi, Saketh Sundar, Russ Wolfinger, Dave Osthus, Lauren Castro, Geoffrey Fairchild, Isaac Michaud, D. Karlen, Matt Kinsey, Luke C. Mullany, Kaitlin Rainwater‐Lovett, Lauren Shin, Katharine Tallaksen, Shelby Wilson, Elizabeth C. Lee, Juan Dent, Kyra H. Grantz, Alison L. Hill, Joshua Kaminsky, Kathryn Kaminsky, Lindsay T. Keegan, Stephen A. Lauer, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Justin Lessler, Hannah R. Meredith, Javier Perez‐Saez, Sam Shah, Claire P. Smith, Shaun Truelove, Josh Wills, Maximilian Marshall, Lauren Gardner, Kristen Nixon, John C. Burant, Li Wang, Lei Gao, Zhiling Gu, Myungjin Kim, Xinyi Li, Guannan Wang, Yueying Wang, Shan Yu, Robert C. Reiner, Ryan M Barber, Emmanuela Gakidou, Simon I Hay, Steve Lim, Chris Murray, David M. Pigott, Heidi Gurung, Prasith Baccam, Steven A. Stage, Bradley T. Suchoski, B. Aditya Prakash, Bijaya Adhikari, Jiaming Cui, Alexander Rodríguez, Anika Tabassum, Jiajia Xie, Pınar Keskinocak, John Asplund, Arden Baxter, Buse Eylul Oruc, Nicoleta Serban, Sercan Ö. Arık, Mike Dusenberry, Arkady Epshteyn, Elli Kanal, Long Tan Le, Chun‐Liang Li, Tomas Pfister, Dario Sava, Rajarishi Sinha, Thomas C. Tsai, Nathanael C. Yoder, Jinsung Yoon, Leyou Zhang, Sam Abbott, Nikos I Bosse, Sebastian Funk, Joel Hellewell, Sophie Meakin, Katharine Sherratt, Mingyuan Zhou, Rahi Kalantari, Teresa K. Yamana, Sen Pei, Jeffrey Shaman, Michael Lingzhi Li, Dimitris Bertsimas, Omar Skali Lami, Soni Saksham, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Turgay Ayer, Madeline Adee, Jagpreet Chhatwal, Özden O. Dalgıç, Mary A. Ladd, Benjamin P. Linas, Peter P. Mueller, Jade Xiao, Yuanjia Wang, Qinxia Wang, Shanghong Xie, Donglin Zeng, Alden Green, Jacob Bien, Logan Brooks, Addison J. Hu, Maria Jahja, Daniel J. McDonald, Balasubramanian Narasimhan, Collin A. Politsch, Samyak Rajanala, Aaron Rumack, Noah Simon, Ryan J. Tibshirani, Rob Tibshirani, Valérie Ventura, Larry Wasserman, Eamon B. O’Dea, John M. Drake, Robert R. Pagano, Ngoc Quoc Tran, Lam Si Tung Ho, Huong Huynh, Jo Walker, Rachel B. Slayton, Michael A. Johansson, Matthew Biggerstaff, Nicholas G Reich,
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