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Urban growth modelling and social vulnerability assessment for a hazardous Kathmandu Valley

2022; Nature Portfolio; Volume: 12; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1038/s41598-022-09347-x

2045-2322

Carlos Mesta, Gemma Cremen, Carmine Galasso,

Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research

In our rapidly urbanizing world, many hazard-prone regions face significant challenges regarding risk-informed urban development. This study addresses this issue by investigating evolving spatial interactions between natural hazards, ever-increasing urban areas, and social vulnerability in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. The methodology considers: (1) the characterization of flood hazard and liquefaction susceptibility using pre-existing global models; (2) the simulation of future urban built-up areas using the cellular-automata SLEUTH model; and (3) the assessment of social vulnerability, using a composite index tailored for the case-study area. Results show that built-up areas in Kathmandu Valley will increase to 352 km