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Election-Related Violence in the Philippines: Trends, Targets, and Perpetrators

2022; RELX Group (Netherlands); Linguagem: Inglês

10.2139/ssrn.4036939

1556-5068

Imelda Deinla, Kier Jesse Ballar, Renner Paul Refani, Jurel Yap,

Hong Kong and Taiwan Politics

Election-related violence (ERV) is a recurring concern in the Philippines — one that strikes deep into the hearts of the country’s democratic institutions. As such, a thorough analysis on the nature of ERVs in the country is necessary for the development of policies that combat such violence. While there has been a number of ERV studies post-Marcos, this is the first that looks at electoral violence data at both the individual and aggregate levels. This study examines incidences of Election-Related Violence (ERV) in the Philippines from 2013 to 2019 using a novel dataset, the ASOG ERV Database, constructed from online media reports. The findings highlight key characteristics of ERV in the Philippines from 2013 to 2019. ● Certain areas in the Philippines are hotspots of ERV incidents from 2013 to 2019, such as Metro Manila (e.g. Malabon City), Western Mindanao (e.g. Maguindanao, Lanao del Sur, Lanao del Norte, and Zamboanga del Sur), Central Visayas (e.g. Cebu), Eastern Visayas (e.g. Samar), South Luzon (e.g. Batangas, Quezon, and Masbate), Central Luzon (e.g. Nueva Ecija), and North Luzon (e.g. Ilocos Norte, Abra, La Union, and Isabela). ● The number of ERV incidents increases as the election comes closer — with a significant build-up at around 100 days before the election. The number of ERV incidents also reaches its peak at the election date. ● Most of the perpetrators of ERV incidents in the country are unidentified assailants (such as unidentified gunmen, motorcycle-riding gunmen, assassins, hired gunmen, etc.).● State actors are among the most frequently targeted in ERV incidents. Further, while ERV incidents involving state actors comprise most of pre-election violence, citizens are targeted the most on election day. ● There is also a significant number of ERV incidents targeting state actors right after election day — a pattern that is absent for other targets. ● A significant number of ERV incidents in the country are lethal. Interestingly, while state actors observe a build-up and a peak of ERV incidents (combined fatal and non-fatal) on election day, lethal ERV incidents targeting state actors do not exhibit a peak on election day — unlike some other targets.Using the ASOG Political Dynasties Dataset, a positive relationship was observed between the number of ERV incidents and the concentration of dynastic officials in a province for a given year. That is, more dynastic provinces are more likely to exhibit higher total incidents of ERVs than less dynastic provinces.This study confirms how high levels of electoral violence in the Philippines take place or are linked with other forms of organized violence. The study emphasizes the importance of institutional and policy reforms, particularly the anti-political dynasty reform, stricter gun regulation, and the dismantling of paramilitary groups and private armies.