Angola: Selected Issues
2015; International Monetary Fund; Volume: 15; Issue: 302 Linguagem: Inglês
10.5089/9781513547855.002
ISSN2227-8907
Autores Tópico(s)International Development and Aid
Resumo5(ii) international credit rating agencies, financial market participants, and the public welcome improved fiscal transparency and the disclosure of fiscal risks; and (iii) a transparent discussion of fiscal risks and mitigating measures contribute to reducing policy uncertainty and increasing confidence on the conduct of fiscal policy. 3.Against this background, Angola's 2015 budget documentation includes some discussion on risks to budget execution. 4 The budget documentation focuses mainly on risks emerging from oil prices and production, energy subsidies, and fiscal incentives.It also provides the instruments available for managing contingencies, including the oil Funds (see below). 4.Additional information on the main fiscal risks-with their quantification and stress tests and scenarios-and more details on how to manage them would further strengthen Angola's budget documentation.These risks are related mainly to: (i) volatility in oil prices and, to a lesser extent, oil production; (ii) macroeconomic shocks, such as real GDP growth or exchange rate shocks; (iii) macroeconomic forecasting; (iv) weaknesses in public fiscal management systems; (v) energy sector subsidies and pricing; (vi) potential delays of oil revenue transfers from the state-owned oil company SONANGOL to the Treasury; and (vii) potential contingent liabilities from state-owned banks and enterprises. B. Macroeconomic RisksOil revenue volatility 5.The Angolan economy is highly vulnerable to oil price shocks.During 2011-13, the oil sector in Angola represented, on average, about 45 percent of GDP, oil exports were about 95 percent of total exports, and oil revenue made up about 80 percent of total fiscal revenue.In the last decade, Angola experienced two oil price shocks-2008-09 and the ongoing 2014-15. 6.The oil price shock of 2008-09 had an immediate adverse impact on the Angolan economy.The price of the country's oil basket fell to US$60.8 per bbl in 2009, from US$93.9 per bbl in 2008, leading to very large declines in fiscal revenue and exports (Table 1).Non-oil GDP growth decelerated to 8 percent in 2009, from 15 percent in 2008, with manufacturing and commerce being affected the most.Inflation increased, the external current account moved into deficit, and international reserves dropped considerably. 7.Similarly, the oil price shock of 2014-15 is adversely impacting the economy.Angola's oil basket is projected to average US$53 per bbl in 2015, from slightly over US$100 per bbl in 2014, leading to large declines in fiscal revenue and exports.Non-oil GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 2 percent in 2015, as the industrial, construction and services sectors are adjusting to cuts in private consumption and public investment amid a more limited availability of foreign
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