Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Beans

2019; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 32; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/08998280.2018.1559390

1525-3252

Jeffrey B. Michel,

Plant pathogens and resistance mechanisms

Mexican Colonel DomingoHuerta forced 176 American prisoners of war to choose beans from a bag; 159 of the beans were white and 17 were black.Prior to making their choice, each prisoner had a 10% chance of losing his life before a firing squad, the fate of those picking a black bean.Once all beans had been drawn, however, the odds were certain: 0% for those who drew white and 100% for those who picked black.One soldier, James L. Shepherd, survived the firing squad and played dead.He lay still on the courtyard until night fell and then made his escape, only to be recaptured and shot.The fate of the black bean could not be altered.Every day, I drive past an electronic sign placed by the Texas Department of Public Safety that reports motor vehicle deaths year to date.Yesterday it was 2689.The number has risen steadily throughout the year.I remember several days in early January when it was a single digit.Then, I had hoped that further death might be thwarted, the number frozen.Barring that, I hoped that the sign might be removed from my daily commute.The names of those who will die cannot be known in advance.Yet as each year unfolds, those who drive or ride in motor vehicles will unconsciously choose a bean.Statistics will take their toll.Out of a population of over 28 million, approximately 1 in 10,000 Texans will die.Yet the odds differ for each individual.The number of white beans in a person's bag is unique.But mixed among the thousands of white beans there is always one black.We can add white beans to our bags through skill, sobriety, and reducing the total miles driven.They can be removed through speed and recklessness.However, every bag contains a black bean.For some, death is certain.As a cardiologist, I am often asked how to avoid dying from heart disease.A childhood friend is an actuary.He tells me that deaths from cardiovascular disease within any human population can be calculated within a 95% confidence interval.Such knowledge allows companies to price life insurance with assurance that they will earn a profit.