Changes in synoptic weather patterns in the polar regions in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, part 1: Arctic
2006; Wiley; Volume: 26; Issue: 8 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1002/joc.1306
ISSN1097-0088
AutoresJohn J. Cassano, Petteri Uotila, Amanda H. Lynch,
Tópico(s)Cryospheric studies and observations
ResumoInternational Journal of ClimatologyVolume 26, Issue 8 p. 1027-1049 Research Article Changes in synoptic weather patterns in the polar regions in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, part 1: Arctic John J. Cassano, Corresponding Author John J. Cassano [email protected] Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USACooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, 216 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309, USASearch for more papers by this authorPetteri Uotila, Petteri Uotila School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University, Monash, AustraliaSearch for more papers by this authorAmanda Lynch, Amanda Lynch School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University, Monash, AustraliaSearch for more papers by this author John J. Cassano, Corresponding Author John J. Cassano [email protected] Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USACooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, 216 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309, USASearch for more papers by this authorPetteri Uotila, Petteri Uotila School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University, Monash, AustraliaSearch for more papers by this authorAmanda Lynch, Amanda Lynch School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University, Monash, AustraliaSearch for more papers by this author First published: 06 March 2006 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1306Citations: 103AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onEmailFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat Abstract An analysis of late twentieth and twenty-first century predictions of Arctic circulation patterns in a ten-model ensemble of global climate system models, using the method of self-organizing maps (SOMs), is presented. The model simulations were conducted in support of the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC). The analysis demonstrates the utility of SOMs for climate analysis, both as a tool to evaluate the accuracy of climate model predictions, and to provide a useful alternative view of future climate change. It is found that not all models accurately simulate the frequency of occurrence of Arctic circulation patterns. Some of the models tend to overpredict strong high-pressure patterns while other models overpredict the intensity of cyclonic circulation regimes. In general, the ensemble of models predicts an increase in cyclonically dominated circulation patterns during both the winter and summer seasons, with the largest changes occurring during the first half of the twenty-first century. Analysis of temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with the different circulation patterns reveals coherent patterns that are consistent with the different circulation regimes and highlight the dependence of local changes in these quantities to changes in the synoptic scale circulation patterns. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. REFERENCES ACIA. 2004. Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge: 139. Google Scholar Ambroise C, Sèze G, Badran F, Thiria S. 2000. Hierarchical clustering of self-organizing maps for cloud classification. Neurocomputing 30: 47–52. 10.1016/S0925-2312(99)00141-1 Web of Science®Google Scholar Barry RG, Perry AH. 2001. 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