Leveraging Overconfidence
2019; RELX Group (Netherlands); Linguagem: Inglês
10.2139/ssrn.3445660
ISSN1556-5068
AutoresBrad M. Barber, Xing Huang, Kwangsoo Ko, Terrance Odean,
Tópico(s)Housing Market and Economics
ResumoIn theory, investors who have low security selection ability trade more, use leverage more, and perform worse if they are overconfident. We confirm these predictions empirically by analyzing the overconfidence, trading, and performance of retail investors who use margin. Using survey data, we measure overconfidence as the difference between an investor's self-assessment of knowledge and tested knowledge; margin investors have greater overconfidence than cash investors. Using broker data, we find margin investors trade more, speculate more, and have worse security selection ability than cash investors. A long-short portfolio that follows the trades of margin investors loses 35 bps per day.
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